Archive for category Nature

Being ‘bird-brained’ merits reconsideration

First off, writing this blog from my winter home in Florida, I appreciate the sensibility of snowbirds who abandon their northern climes every fall. Smart! Furthermore, studies show that avian brains, specifically crows and ravens (collectively known as “corvids”), can accommodate statistical thinking—a skill that many humans lack based on my experience as an educator. Researchers from the University of Tübingen worked this out via a clever experiment that required crows to assess the probability of getting a treat based on prior experience pecking at differing images.

“True statistical inference requires subjects use relative rather than absolute frequency of previously experienced events. Here, we show that crows can relate memorized reward probabilities to infer reward-maximizing decisions.”

Johnston, et al, Crows flexibly apply statistical inferences based on previous experience, Current Biology, Volume 33, Issue 15, 7 August 2023, Pages 3238-3243

This gives new meaning to the saying that “if the p-value is high, the null must fly.”

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Hurricane season off to a hot start with great uncertainty ahead

After narrowly dodging Ian’s devastating blow last fall—predicted the day before landfall to hit just a few blocks from my southwest Florida winter home, I am keeping a close watch on this year’s storms.

Just prior to 2024 season on June 1, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted it would be near normal. The NOAA forecasters figure on the winds from the Pacific’s El Nino counteracting the storm inducing temperatures in the Atlantic.

A clash of the titans lies ahead as developing El Niño and notable warmth in the Tropical Atlantic go toe-to-toe.

Ryan Truchelut—the Weather Tiger’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for May 2023

The Weather Tiger (quoted above) calculated Florida landfall odds this year at slightly above 50/50 for at least 1 hurricane. That was before Tropical Storm Cindy formed behind Tropical Storm Bret in June, creating the first case of two storms in the tropical Atlantic in June since record keeping began in 1851–an alarmingly aggressive start to the season.

Based on these forecasts and the history of USA hurricanes, it seems certain to me that, before 2023 is over, our home will come into harm’s way. Therefore, I keep a close watch on NOAA’s graphical forecasts that display cones showing the probable track of the center of every tropical cyclone. These cones create a great deal of consternation and confusion due to difficulties comprehending probabilities, overly high expectations in the accuracy and precision of forecasting models, and other issues.

While admiring the continuing advancements in meteorology, including this year’s extension to 7 days for hurricane forecasts, I believe (but only half seriously) that if a weather forecast one-day ahead puts me at the bullseye of an oncoming storm, then it will be a miss. This worked for Hurricane Ian. But to hedge my bets, I greatly reinforced our home over the winter to resist wind, rain and flooding—bringing it all up to current hurricane codes and beyond.

Best be safe!

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Modern breeds don’t join wolves in their call of the wild

When I grew up, dogs mainly roamed free in my Saint Paul city neighborhood. They would create a terrific cacophony of howls when fire engines cruised by, and even more so during monthly testing of civil-defense sirens.

Based on my observations of our dogs and others it seemed to me that they all responded to these wolf-like sounds. So I was surprised to learn that Hungarian scientists observed only 39 of 68 breeds joining in on wolf howling.* Furthermore, they graded the vocal responses by type as follows (making me howl with laughter-ha ha):

  1. Howl, Bark-howl, Moan, Yelp
  2. Growl, Growl-howl, Woof
  3. Whine, Whine-howl
  4. Bark

The researchers then applied principal component analysis (PCA) that connected the degree of howling to the genetic distance from wolves—ancient breeds (huskies, malamutes and the like) older most likely to join in. This effect becomes more pronounced with age: Older dogs from modern breeds (for example, terriers and boxers) being least likely to howl with the wolves.

Hopefully, I interpreted this study correctly—there’s a lot to it. However, if you have a dog and remain uncertain how they howl, turn the volume up on this video.

By the way, I almost literally ran into a huge timber-wolf sitting on a remote road in northern Minnesota. After I brought our family car to a full stop, the wolf stared me down before sauntering slowly off. That gave me a healthy respect for Canis lupus and their wildness.

PS If you like dogs (as I do!), check out this briefing by Reuters, which includes a short video of the lead scientist and her Siberian husky Bizsu, whose howling precipitated this fascinating study.

*Lehoczki, et al, “Genetic distance from wolves affects family dogs’ reactions towards howls”, Communications Biology volume 6, Article number: 129 (2023)

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Going all out to save the birds

Last summer a cute little bird smacked into our patio door. It stood stunned long enough for me to get this closeup.

I see lots of cardinals (my favorite!), finches, sparrows and other backyard birds all year round. Others—robins and the like—come only when the weather warms up. However, I don’t recall ever seeing one in pretty pastels of brown and yellow. This beautifully colored creature does not pop out for me as one of the 23 most common birds in Minnesota. What could it be? Google Lens provides a clue by identifying it as a warbler. Along this line, based on what’s pictured on internet (even narrowed to warblers, many appearing similar), I’m going with this being a female (juvenile?) common yellowthroat. Do you agree?

Happily, this cute little yellow-throated bird flew off soon after its stunning encounter with our house and never came back to knock on our door. However, from time to time a bright-red male cardinal takes issue with its rival staring back from our bay windows. I’ve tried to ward these aggressors off by taping CDs shiny-side-out to the middle of the glass. However, that never works. Now, thanks to a heads-up from New York Times,* I know why: This new study by College of William & Mary biologists shows that window films increase avoidance of collisions by birds but only when applied externally.

“Bird collisions with windows kill more than a billion birds per year.”

Professor John Swaddle, lead scientist of first experimental study to compare the effectiveness of window films when applied to internal versus external surfaces of double-glazed windows

The researchers randomly divided 72 zebra finches into 4 groups via a two-factor, two-level factorial that varied type of film—BirdShades (not commercially available yet) vs Haverkamp—and location on the glass surface—interior vs exterior. No worries—their ingenious flight-testing facility featured a net that prevented window-bound birds from head-on collision.

By the way, in this interview by W&M News (check out the picture of his student showing the “proper technique for holding a zebra finch”), Swaddle says that “silhouettes of animals or birds don’t tend to work in part because they’re generally too spaced out.” So, when our windows again come under attack by angry birds, I will use many CDs (putting a plentiful pile of unused and obsolete media to good use)—not just one—and duct tape them to the outside—not the inside. I just hope that the neighbors don’t complain about the blast of solar radiation going back their way.

*“Those Window Stickers to Prevent Bird Strikes? There’s a Catch.”, Catrin Einhorn, Feb. 2, 2023 (Updated Feb. 7)

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See C/2022 E3 (ZTF) aka the “green comet”




Discovered by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) nearly last March, comet C/2022 E3 features a not uncommon bright green glow caused by out-of-this world diatomic carbon (not stable on Earth). What makes E3 rare is that it last appeared 50,000 years ago when Neanderthals still roamed.

Today the comet made its closest approach; but the windchill here in Minnesota will run well below -20 F—way too cold even for an astronomy fan like me. I’m holding out for the 10th of this month when E3 will be close to Mars in the night sky and thus easy to find. However, I may settle for this amazing view provided by Portuguese astrophotographer Michael Claro taken during a spectacular disconnection event when the comet’s tail got torn away by a powerful gust of solar wind.

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Will our boreal forests become a carbon bomb?

Leading up to Earth Day on Friday, last week’s CBS Mornings show featured several reports on environmental issues. One that caught my eye provided a birds-eye view of 10 giant octagonal glass chambers in northern Minnesota’s Marcell Experimental Forest operated by the U.S. Forest Service. They look very much like an alien colony!

It turns out, though, that this out-of-this-world complex is the home of the “SPRUCE” experiment, providing data on Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments. From what I saw on CBS, things do not look good for boreal trees subjected to the most extreme conditions of temperature and carbon dioxide. However, it will be best not to make any conclusions until this “largest climate change experiment on the planet” ends it’s 10-year run some years from now.

“Will deep belowground warming in future release 10,000 years of accumulated carbon from peatlands that store one-third of earth’s terrestrial carbon?”

– The ‘bombshell’ question that the SPRUCE experiment hopes to answer

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Turtle-egg predators subjected to Carolina Reaper

Wednesday’s Venice Gondolier featured a report on an experiment by a volunteer beach patrol to deter predation of endangered sea-turtle eggs by coyotes and armadillos.  With the blessing of Florida’s Fish & Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC), they sprinkled varying amounts of Carolina Reaper pepper (one of the hottest known to humanity) atop four beach-nests over a range of time (with a nearby one being the control–no deterrent):

  1. 2 tablespoons (tbsp) every 5 days
  2. 4 tbsp every 5 days
  3. 2 tbsp every 10 days
  4. 4 tbsp every 10 days

This forms a full, two-level factorial.  That is good thinking.  However, they would have done well to replicate it to provide some statistical power for not only the main effects of amount and time-spacing, but also the possible interaction of these factors (maybe a particular combination works best).  In any case, these innovative volunteers discovered that the hot pepper kept the coyotes away, but, unfortunately not the armadillos, who quickly learned how to dig under the deterrent and get at the eggs.  On the brighter side, the pepper put off an inundation of fire ants—to the great relief of the experimenters going in to inspect the nests.

The FWC is now reviewing these findings to consider modifying the advice they laid out in this 2010 Sea Turtle Nest Predator Control Plan, which focuses only on raccoons and ghost crabs.  The Floridian authorities do not go gentle into the night: They trap and/or shoot to kill the cravenly critters.

PS: I’ve never seen a sea turtle, but landlocked terrapins abound in the Venice area, where my wife and I winter.  Earlier this month I overheard some tourists discussing what to do with a Gopher tortoise (like the one pictured below) under a beach-way boardwalk—put it directly back in the ocean or just leave by the edge.  Luckily for the tortoise they finally decided to let it be, ha ha.

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The perfect condiment from the Red Planet: Martian ketchup!

Astrobiologists at Florida Tech’s Aldrin Space Institute recently teamed up with Kraft Heinz to make ketchup from tomatoes grown in Mars-like conditions. Never mind Pillsbury’s Space Food Sticks or Tang—my favorite foods growing up in awe of astronauts: Bring on the Martian ketchup!

The Florida Tech News Bureau provides these fascinating facts and figures on this unearthly food-science development:

  • A team of more than a dozen students, scientists, and technicians worked in a greenhouse, known as the Red House, to grow the Martian tomatoes
  • Powerful LED lighting on 7,800 pounds of soil from the Mohave Desert provided Martian conditions for the 450 experimental tomato plants grown over a period of two years
  • A bottle of “Marz” ketchup survived a 23-mile-altitude balloon-flight that reduced its temperature to minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit.

Here’s another amazing statistic cited widely on the internet: The average American eats 71 pounds of ketchup per year, which Google data supports—it being the condiment of choice in nearly half of USA’s states.*

For more details on the HEINZ Ketchup Marz Edition and a picture of a Martian-like tomato see this November 9 report by the Space Coast Daily.

“Working with the tomato masters at Heinz has allowed us to see what the possibilities are for long term food production beyond Earth.”

Andrew Palmer, Associate Professor of Biological Sciences, Aldrin Space Institute

*(BestLife, 4/28/21, This Is the Most Popular Condiment in Your State, According to Data)

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Tomatoes may turn you into a zombie

The latest issue of Chemical & Engineering News reports alerted me to the discovery by a team of Brazilian botanists that tomatoes communicate sensory information back to their parent plant. The scientists worked this out by letting a hungry caterpillar gorge on wired-up Micro Toms much like my ripening cherry tomatoes (pictured). This seems a bit callous to me from the perspective of a plant. However, it is sweet for the sake of science (and the future butterfly).

Based on statistical analysis of the variation in signals*, the researchers concluded that the tomato plant sensed its fruit being eaten. Therefore, they hypothesized that the parent could fight back by emitting chemicals such as this one discovered by a University of Wisconsin biologist that makes attacking caterpillars eat each other .

Be careful the next time you squeeze tomatoes on the vine to check their ripeness—they might not like it and take revenge by turning you into a zombie. (Wow, that took a dark turn!)

* For experimental details, see Fruit Herbivory Alters Plant Electrome: Evidence for Fruit-Shoot Long-Distance Electrical Signaling in Tomato Plants, Frontiers of Sustainable Food Systems, 20 July 2021.

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Squirrels best Olympian gymnasts and jumpers for acrobatics

As reported by the New York Times on Thursday, this month’s Science features amazing experimental results that illustrate how squirrels learn to leap and land on tree branches without falling. Cognitive scientists and biomechanics experts at the University of California, Berkeley, put wild fox squirrels to a test that varied distance and flexibility of branches for a payoff of peanuts.

The wily rodents adapted to challenging conditions by bouncing off walls like parkour athletes, which you can see in this video posted by Independent.

The researchers concluded that “the squirrels’ remarkable and consistent success was due to a combination of learned impulse generation when assessing the balance between distance and branch flexibility and the addition of innovative leaps and landings in the face of increasingly difficult challenges.”

By the way, these Berkeley boffins hope to translate their newly discovered squirrely techniques into smarter robots. That is very alarming!

For even more a-maze-ing feats, check out this YouTube video posted recently by Mark Rober, a former NASA engineer, who goes all out to stymie squirrels with ingenious backyard obstacles:

PS: After years of trial and error, I finally defeated my bird-feed thieving backyard squirrels by mounting a Perky-Pet 340 Transparent 16-Inch Squirrel Baffler in wobbly fashion on the metal pole, and placing it away from any nearby branches and structures. : )

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