Archive for category Uncategorized
Embrace coincidences to shore up your well-being
Posted by mark in Uncategorized, Wellness on October 19, 2022
Being a believer in the power of positivity, I am always on the lookout for the bright side of life. For example, while out for a very chilly walk this morning, I was delighted to see a dozen or so bluebirds perched along a fence next to the sidewalk. I embraced this happy coincidence!
Professor David Hand, former Chair in Statistics at Imperial College, London, made a case that these little miracles occur daily.* You just need to be pay attention. I got some great reinforcement for collecting coincidences from a report last week by Wall Street Journal columnist Elizabeth Anne Bernstein.** She provided a great example of a fortuitous series of events that led to a wonderful meeting with a friend of her father, who passed away earlier this year.
“Surprising concurrent events can help us reach decisions, soothe us in grief and tighten our connections to others.
Elizabeth Anne Bernstein
Although some people believe in divine causes for coincidences such as Elizabeth’s,*** I think they occur at random and get selectively noticed due to personal biases. In any case, I am happy for anyone who gains comfort from them.
PS For an excellent breakdown of coincidence by serendipity (“happy accidents”) versus synchronicity (an acausal “falling together in time” see this 2021 Psychology Today explanation by Bernard D. Beitman, M.D. of Meaningful Coincidences.
PPS On a related, more humorous note, check out this ‘heads-up’ on the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon. Eery!
*See my 2014 blog explaining why Laws of nature lead to rare events that really ought not surprise anyone
**The Hidden Power of Coincidences
***For example, many believed in a heavenly arrangement for the simultaneous deaths of Thomas Jefferson and John Adams on July 4, 1826—exactly 50 years after each had signed the Declaration of Independence.
Eschew surplusage
Posted by mark in Communication, Uncategorized on October 8, 2022
This is Mark Twain’s humorous advice for jargon-prone writers who fail to “employ a simple and straightforward style.”* In case you’re wondering, “surplusage” means “unnecessary or irrelevant language.” This obscure term is mainly used by the legal profession. Isn’t that ironic?
Here are some promising developments for citizens in English-speaking countries who suffer from surplusage at the hands of their lawyer-riddled governments:
- The Plain Language bill now coming to a final vote by the New Zealand Parliament may make simple-English training mandatory for their public servants.**
- Twelve years ago this month, the USA enacted the Plain Writing Act of 2010 establishing that Government documents issued to the public must be written clearly.
- A recent Labradorian-commissioned comparative study of “ordinary” versus “plain” English showed significant improvements in reading speed, understanding, retention and appreciation.**
- The 2022 Ig Nobel Prize for Literature was awarded to the authors (Martinez, et al) of Poor writing, not specialized concepts, drives processing difficulty in legal language (not at all ignoble—lawyers should be held accountable for incomprehensible contracts).
“Contracts contain “startlingly” high proportions of difficult-to-process (“complex psycholinguistic) features including low frequency jargon, centre-embedded clauses, passive voice structures, and non-standard capitalisation.”
Eric Martinez and Edward Gibson at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Francis Mollica at the University of Edinburgh
Poor writing is not confined to government or legal communications. Those of us who work in the scientific arena must work mightily to decipher reports intended to provide “accessibly erudite progressive rigor” (the first phrase that came up for me at this Academic B.S. Generator). I found some hope from these studies:
- A randomized, controlled study on thousands of subjects “indicating the detrimental effects of providing too many details on statistical concepts.”***
- A call**** by statistician Karen Grace-Martin to work on reducing four major sources of confusion for terminology rising to a level of “absurdity”:
- “Single terms with multiple meanings,” e.g., alpha and beta used for linear-model coefficients as well as to symbolize risk versus power.
- “Terms with colloquial meanings in English and technical definitions in statistics,” e.g., “error” (supposedly early statisticians got so much criticism from managers about too many errors that they started calling these “residuals).
- “Similar terms with nuanced meanings,” e.g., General Linear Model and Generalized Linear Model (being an engineer-only, I have trouble with this distinction).
- “Multiple terms with one basic meaning,” e.g., a long list of synonyms for “mixed models”.
Down with bureaucratic language, legalese and technical jargon!
*See rules #14 #18 (speaking plainly) in Fenimore Cooper’s Literary Offenses
**The Effectiveness of Plain Language Proven by Data, 2020
***Kerwer, et al, How to Put It Plainly? , 2021.
Spacecraft DART scores a direct hit on asteroid Dimorphos
Posted by mark in science, Uncategorized on September 27, 2022
It was amazing to see today the videos from NASA showing a direct hit by their spacecraft DART (an acronym for “Double Asteroid Redirection Test”) on the asteroid Dimorphos.
Here are some amazing statistics on this astounding feat of physics:
- DART traveled 56,000 miles to accomplish its $330 million suicidal mission against the 560-foot diameter Dimorphos.
- DART came in at 1,260 pounds to impact the 11-billion-pound Dimorphos, similar in scale to a house-fly smashing into an NFL running back. This seems harmless if not for the fact that the fly is going 15,000 miles per hour!
- NASA’s boffins predict that the impact will shift the orbit of Dimorphos around its bigger sibling Didymos by 1%–reducing it by 7 minutes from the current rate of about 12 hours per revolution.
The big question is: Could we really deflect an asteroid heading for Earth? Given the success of DART, I am now a lot more optimistic that, by the time a planet-threatening object comes our way, a defense system will be in place.
“We do not currently know of any object of “moderate” size which has a chance of impact in the next 100 years. …Please keep in mind that anything smaller than about 30 meters in size will have an airburst and is unlikely to reach ground (excluding metallic NEAs). Our atmosphere is very efficient at protecting us from small impacts.”
– Asteroid scientist Marina Brozovic
New insights this summer on human limits to heat
Posted by mark in Uncategorized, Wellness on August 19, 2022
These late August days in Minnesota bring back poignant memories of the treasured time after the dog days of summer with the start of school looming. The cool breezes of late summer provided welcome relief for the sleepless nights spent sweltering on the top level of my bunk on the second floor of our two-story house in our un-air-conditioned bedroom.
Now comes the bad news from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that the average overnight temperature in the USA this July was the hottest on record.* But the good news is that the great majority of households nowadays (as of 2020) feature A/C. For the cool stats, see this 8/15/22 post by the Energy Institute on How Many U.S. Households Don’t Have Air Conditioning.
I never paid much attention to heat and humidity until my undergraduate studies in chemical engineering at the University of Minnesota. Then I came to appreciate the impact of ambient conditions. Our lab instructor taught us how to measure moisture in the air via a sling psychrometer such as the one demonstrated very delightfully “down under” here. The resulting reading is called the wet bulb temperature.
If you must venture out into the mid-day sun, be careful not to go beyond what your body can balance for the heat. As reported here on July 6, researchers at Penn State University (PSU) discovered that “heat + humidity gets dangerous faster than many people realize.” Their findings came from experiments on 25 young adults who each swallowed a small telemetry pill, which monitored their core temperature. Previous studies** suggested that most people can tolerate a wet-bulb temperature of up to 95 degrees F. But the new data from PSU lowers this limit to 88 degrees.
“When the body overheats, the heart has to work harder to pump blood flow to the skin to dissipate the heat, and when you’re also sweating, that decreases body fluids. In the direst case, prolonged exposure can result in heat stroke, a life-threatening problem that requires immediate and rapid cooling and medical treatment.”
– W. Larry Kenney, Professor of Physiology, Kinesiology and Human Performance, Penn State, and his PSU H.E.A.T Project team
The tolerance to heat and humidity is certainly even less for people over 65, who, according to the PSU researchers comprise 80-90 percent of heat-wave casualties. They will now shift their experimental focus to this older generation.
Be careful out there!
* “The U.S. in July set a new record for overnight warmth”, The Associated Press, August 13, 2022.
** Sherwood & Huber, “An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 5/3/10, 107 (21) 9552-9555.
A very scents-able invention for detecting odors
Posted by mark in science, Uncategorized on January 23, 2022
I was impressed to see this recent New York Times ‘heads-up’ featuring a fellow chemical engineer from University of Minnesota, Chuck McGinley, who operates a lab just a few miles down the road from my home in Stillwater, MN. They got a great shot of Chuck using his Nasal Ranger to sniff around in South St. Paul, last summer. That area of the Twin Cities has emitted unpleasant odors throughout my lifetime—it being founded as a regional stockyard and still the home of a stinky rendering plant.*
“Some of the most recognizable and potent odors, like hydrogen sulfide (think rotten egg) can be sensed at even the tiniest concentrations, like 1 part per billion. ‘If you were to map out the distance from New York to Los Angeles, 1 part per billion would account for only a few inches along that route’.”
– New York Times quoting Professor Jacek Koziel, Iowa State
It turns out that there’s a surprising amount of science behind detecting and characterizing odors as detailed in this blog by St. Croix Sensory, where Chuck works as Technical Director. Unfortunately, the main focus of these experts on smelling must, by necessity, be on detection of ‘off-odors’, such as that emanating from kitty litter (yuk!). If I had a Nasal Ranger, it would be aimed at a rose garden or at a barbecue grill, that is, “on” odors.
PS: Sadly, the current coronaviruses not only cause the loss of smell but also a perverse reversal of olfactory senses called “parosmia.” This can make savory foods smell like rotting sewage as noted in a 1/18/22 report by CNBC on how Covid can turn kids into ‘fussy eaters’ if it changes their sense of smell.
*As reported in 11/22/21, Des Moines Register, ‘You can’t escape it’: Stench spoils downtown experience for some in Des Moines , the residents of South St. Paul won a settlement in 2020 for $750,000 for putting up with the off-putting odors.
Turtle-egg predators subjected to Carolina Reaper
Posted by mark in Nature, Uncategorized on December 23, 2021
Wednesday’s Venice Gondolier featured a report on an experiment by a volunteer beach patrol to deter predation of endangered sea-turtle eggs by coyotes and armadillos. With the blessing of Florida’s Fish & Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC), they sprinkled varying amounts of Carolina Reaper pepper (one of the hottest known to humanity) atop four beach-nests over a range of time (with a nearby one being the control–no deterrent):
- 2 tablespoons (tbsp) every 5 days
- 4 tbsp every 5 days
- 2 tbsp every 10 days
- 4 tbsp every 10 days
This forms a full, two-level factorial. That is good thinking. However, they would have done well to replicate it to provide some statistical power for not only the main effects of amount and time-spacing, but also the possible interaction of these factors (maybe a particular combination works best). In any case, these innovative volunteers discovered that the hot pepper kept the coyotes away, but, unfortunately not the armadillos, who quickly learned how to dig under the deterrent and get at the eggs. On the brighter side, the pepper put off an inundation of fire ants—to the great relief of the experimenters going in to inspect the nests.
The FWC is now reviewing these findings to consider modifying the advice they laid out in this 2010 Sea Turtle Nest Predator Control Plan, which focuses only on raccoons and ghost crabs. The Floridian authorities do not go gentle into the night: They trap and/or shoot to kill the cravenly critters.
PS: I’ve never seen a sea turtle, but landlocked terrapins abound in the Venice area, where my wife and I winter. Earlier this month I overheard some tourists discussing what to do with a Gopher tortoise (like the one pictured below) under a beach-way boardwalk—put it directly back in the ocean or just leave by the edge. Luckily for the tortoise they finally decided to let it be, ha ha.
Banging my head against the wall about concussions in football
Posted by mark in sports, Uncategorized on October 17, 2021
Being a big fan of football at all levels—grade school (oldest grandson Archer, pictured, going good on the gridiron), high school, college (season-ticket holder for Golden Gophers) and NFL (long-suffering Vikings fan), I hate to see players going down with concussions and their long-term effects of chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE). I suffered several sports-related concussions myself, which makes me even more keen to see advancements in their prevention. Therefore, I was excited to see this report by ESPN on soft-shelled helmets being tested by NFL players.
Unfortunately, however, the statistics on impact reduction, less than 10%, do not appear to warrant putting on a comically squishy covering over a hard-shell football helmet. The advantage is just too marginal. On the other hand, when doing anything involving an appreciable risk without a helmet, for example, riding a bicycle, wearing one becomes essential for concussion reduction. According to this 2017 article in the Journal of Neurosurgery on helmet efficacy they provide significant protection against “devastating intracranial injury”—skull fractures and the like.
Therefore, I am pleased that, unlike most of his teammates, Archer wears his unglamorous helmet.
However, the bad news from neuroscientists is that helmets are “not efficacious” for protection against concussions.
Heads up!
Fly often, fail often, test often
Posted by mark in science, Uncategorized on September 27, 2021
Being addicted to experimenting, I greatly admire the “fly often, fail often, test often” spirit of the University of Minnesota Rocket Team. On Thursday these student rocketeers updated us engineering and other U Mn alums on their latest exploits, including a win and Overall Award in the 30k bracket of the Spaceport America Cup 2021.
Having grown up during the Space Race and celebrated my golden 16th birthday the day Apollo 11 launched off to put the first man on the Moon, I am keen to see such great leaps in technology for amateur rocketry. It astounds me that a group comprised mainly of undergrad aeronautical engineers can design and build an aircraft reaching 30,000 feet (and much higher if not prohibited by the FAA). That beats my personal-best for rocketry by 29,970 feet or so, ha ha.
“It all looked so easy when you did it on paper — where valves never froze, gyros never drifted, and rocket motors did not blow up in your face.”
Milton W. Rosen, rocket engineer and project manager in the US space program between the end of World War II and the early days of the Apollo Program.
With such great “can do” spirit, willingness to fail, and the high-tech resources of our College of Science and Engineering, the flying Gophers will go far in future, I feel sure.
Tomatoes may turn you into a zombie
Posted by mark in Nature, Uncategorized on August 24, 2021
The latest issue of Chemical & Engineering News reports alerted me to the discovery by a team of Brazilian botanists that tomatoes communicate sensory information back to their parent plant. The scientists worked this out by letting a hungry caterpillar gorge on wired-up Micro Toms much like my ripening cherry tomatoes (pictured). This seems a bit callous to me from the perspective of a plant. However, it is sweet for the sake of science (and the future butterfly).
Based on statistical analysis of the variation in signals*, the researchers concluded that the tomato plant sensed its fruit being eaten. Therefore, they hypothesized that the parent could fight back by emitting chemicals such as this one discovered by a University of Wisconsin biologist that makes attacking caterpillars eat each other .
Be careful the next time you squeeze tomatoes on the vine to check their ripeness—they might not like it and take revenge by turning you into a zombie. (Wow, that took a dark turn!)
* For experimental details, see Fruit Herbivory Alters Plant Electrome: Evidence for Fruit-Shoot Long-Distance Electrical Signaling in Tomato Plants, Frontiers of Sustainable Food Systems, 20 July 2021.
Squids out of water seeking escape from vicious double-jawed eels
Posted by mark in Nature, Uncategorized on June 23, 2021
Two science reports on squids caught my eye today. On the one hand, the New York Times informed me that “When an Eel Climbs a Ramp to Eat Squid From a Clamp, That’s a Moray”. It’s not so funny for the squid who get sucked down off of dry land by creatures with two jaws—an outer one to seize their prey and an inner one that leaps forward to drag it deeper. That’s really creepy. If you have a strong stomach, check out this video by Rita S. Mehta, an evolutionary biologist at the University of California, Santa Cruz. She and her colleague report all the gory experimental details in this month’s Journal of Experimental Biology.
The second bit of news about squids—this one from Complex—seems a bit cheerier: NASA Launches Dozens of Baby Squid Into Space for Experiment. Learn more about this mission by University of Florida researcher Jamie Foster here. Check out the video of the cute little baby squids. Far out!
PS: Heads up: Squids can fly, as detailed in this January 2021 TED-Ed video: