Comments for Stats Made Easy

Comment on Why you should be very leery of forecasts by Eric Kvaalen

Eric Kvaalen — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 07:58:09 +0000

I am rather surprised by this result. It means either that the climate mechanisms have changed drastically in the last 20 years or that these top experts (Klotzbach and Gray) had developed a complicated model that was not supported by statistically significant effects! How else can one explain that the hindcasts are so good and the forecasts in the last couple decades so bad?
They should be able to make a new model which hindcasts equally well both the older data and the newer data, unless of course the climate mechanisms really have changed.

Comment on About by Newly Added 2011 Management Blog Roundup Posts | The Agile Radar

Newly Added 2011 Management Blog Roundup Posts | The Agile Radar — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 09:50:15 +0000

[...] Mark Anderson, at Stats Made Easy, posted their first review, this year, covering: Edge Perspectives. [...]

Comment on About by Newly Added 2011 Management Blog Roundup Posts » Curious Cat Management Improvement Blog

Tue, 20 Dec 2011 07:03:14 +0000

[...] Mark Anderson, at Stats Made Easy, posted their first review, this year, covering: Edge Perspectives. [...]

Comment on Formula for Happiness by Brooks Henderson

Brooks Henderson — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 17:21:39 +0000

Interesting thoughts. It pays to be happy and thankful for what you have been blessed with. However, if you never dream or desire anything (the denominator of the equation), then you will have no impetus for improvement.

Comment on Speed of light exceeded (astounding!)? Or was it measurement error? by Brooks Henderson

Brooks Henderson — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 23:45:16 +0000

Nice picture by the observatory. We saw buildings like this on Mauna Kea in Hawaii. They are impressive. I like to hedge my bets like the guy in the cartoon sometimes, too, by playing fantasy footballl players that are playing against my favorite team (the Bears).

Comment on Pareto distribution makes a handy ‘screw driver’ by Brooks Henderson

Brooks Henderson — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 23:38:03 +0000

The Pareto principle is a very useful concept that you can see demonstrated in many areas. With Albert Pujols’ new $250 million deal, it makes me wonder how many players make 80% of the money in MLB. I bet it’s about 20%.

Comment on Wrong more often than right but never in doubt by Tom Pyzdek

Tom Pyzdek — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 23:45:14 +0000

I studied Kahneman and Tversky in several decision theory classes. Truly the elite in the field of decision science. I teach my students “Pyzdek’s Law”-Most of what you know for sure is wrong. I discovered this early in my Quality Engineering career when I observed that many screening experiments had a error term that was 90% of the total. Hey, if the engineers who designed the thing can only identify variables that explain 10% of the variation in a process, how much of a layperson’s knowledge is similarly off-base? Stock pickers not excepted.

Comment on Wrong more often than right but never in doubt by Brooks Henderson

Brooks Henderson — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 20:36:02 +0000

I knew those verbose talking heads weren’t all they’re cracked up to be. Their advice doesn’t usually work.

Comment on Commuting by car or bike: Studies by UK statisticians by Eric Kvaalen

Eric Kvaalen — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 18:05:26 +0000

I’m not surprised. Unless it’s hilly or you have to start up from a stop over and over, I wouldn’t think a few pounds would make much difference. What’s important is the air drag. In the winter he should wear tight-fitting clothes.

Comment on Fun summer-time experiment: Super-cool beer so it instantly freezes solid by Eric Kvaalen

Eric Kvaalen — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 17:52:24 +0000

First of all, I don’t believe that it froze solid. To freeze water you have to remove 80 calories per gram, which is like cooling it to -80° C, much colder than what your freezer can do. So it probably looks like it’s frozen solid, but actually contains liquid inside.

Secondly, the explanation by Daryl Taylor is not correct. If removing the cap lets some gas out (which is not obvious), this would cause a temperature drop in the gas above the beer, but this wouldn’t cause enough cooling to freeze all the beer. As you found, it’s not necessary to remove the lid. You just need to give it a shock or cause some bubbles and suddenly you have nucleated the crystals and they begin to grow (which heats the beer up, by the way).