Archive for November, 2018

Count on placebo effect to counteract colds this coming season

In anticipation of seasonal sniffles and hacking coughs I restocked my supply of throat lozenges today. The selection ranged from generics at less than one dollar for a 30-count bag to brands going for several times that price. I see on Amazon a popular choice called “Thieves” that go for $40 for the same quantity that I bought for 97 cents!

Evidently (per National Institute of Health) cough medicines’ effect is mainly placebo. If you do not believe this, go ahead and buy the most expensive lozenges—it will surely make you feel better: Belief enhances the power of a placebo, which means “I shall please” in Latin. You also should consider stocking up in a costly painkiller called Placeberol—laced with Inertaminophen that’s featured in the New York Times Magazine earlier this month* (just kidding).

By the way, the opposite of placebo is the nocebo effect—a belief that an inert ingredient will cause harm to your health. It can be a killer according to this report by the BBC that you can think yourself to death.

My prescription is to maintain a positive attitude to the efficacy of cough drops but pay as little for them as possible. While awaiting the cure for the common cold, I don’t see any alternative.

* What if the Placebo Effect Isn’t a Trick .

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Talking turkey on extrapolation—do not stick your neck out!

“Extrapolating patterns beyond their natural range can lead to false conclusions” PhD statistician Christine Anderson-Cook in the October issue of Quality Progress. * That should be obvious to everyone. Unfortunately, though, one naturally “eye fits” the final leg of every graph straight out into the beyond of the X axis, thus overlooking the possibility of an imminent bend such as the one shown here by Gapminder. A classic case of this occurred a decade ago when a consensus of forecasters predicted that all of the world economies would experience continued expansion in 2009—none foreseeing the Great Recession. **

“Avoid Linear extrapolation … The turkey’s first 1000 days are a seemingly unending succession of gradually improving circumstances confirmed by daily experience. What happens on Day 1001? Thanksgiving.”

-John E. Sener (Source: Consortium for the Advancement of Undergraduate Statistics Education)

Be careful out there!

* “Straight Line or Not?” p45.

** Financial Times, “An astonishing record – of complete failure”, Tim Harford, May 30, 2014

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