Archive for June, 2019

“You touch the stupid object, you change the stupid object”

So, according to the Wall Street Journal*, says Jon Pratt, a mechanical engineer with the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). He was speaking about a cylinder of platinum-iridium forged in 1889, known as “Le Grand K”, which on May 20 went out of service as the kilogram standard.

Metrologists worldwide now will define this weight by non-physical methods based on non-changing constants of the universe. It will be measured by a high-tech tool called the Kibble balance.

For a detailed explanation of the new kilogram standard and a fascinating video of NIST’s Kibble balance in action, see the Wired magazine post by physics professor Rhett Allain on The Basic Physics of the Kilogram’s Fancy New Definition. Weighty stuff! (A bit too dense for me—I just like the Kibble…mesmerizing.)

*(“The Numbers” by Jo Craven McGinty, “The Kilogram Faces a New Test of Metal”, 6/8/19)

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Over half of all children have below-average reading skills

Yes, you read that right—this statistic was cited by Eugenia Cheng last weekend in her column for the Wall Street Journal on why Averages Aren’t Always What They Seem. In this case, a small number of excellent readers skews the distribution to the right.

But none of this applies to my offspring, them being in the Lake Wobegon region where all the children are above average.

I would never admit it, but deep down I realize that I’ve succumbed to the superiority illusion, aka the Dunning-Kruger effect. As advised in this June 3rd post by Forbes you’d best be careful not to be taken in by individuals who consistently overestimate their competence due to this cognitive bias.

Steve Carell took the superiority illusion to an absurd extreme as the manager Michael Scott in the “The Office” television series. It’s funny unless you are subject to someone like this.

“The knowledge and intelligence that are required to be good at a task are often the same qualities needed to recognize that one is not good at that task—and if one lacks such knowledge and intelligence, one remains ignorant that one is not good at that task.”

— David Dunning, professor of psychology at the University of Michigan

“Stupid people are so stupid they’re unable to grasp the fact that they’re stupid.”

— Letter to Editor of Oroville Mercury Register, 6/23/19

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Park in the first open spot or chance one opening much closer?

Up until a few years ago when going to an event with limited parking, I always took the first opening available. But then one of my buddies told me how he prays for a closer place and one always opens. I thought about that and came to an epiphany that, as a general rule, one may as well try for a parking spot as close as possible to the destination. That’s been working for me ever since.

This strategy is now validated by researchers who evaluated three alternatives: meek, optimistic and prudent. They mathematically disrespect the meek driver parks at the first available spot that is behind the most distant parked car.

“The meek strategy is the most stupid strategy.”

Professor Sidney Redner, Santa Fe Institute—co-author of Simple Parking Strategies, Apr 14, 2019

However, the optimistic driver (like my prayerful friend) who goes for the closest spot, bypassing any gaps before the destination, pays a big penalty if they fail–going all the to the back of the parking line and being late for their even. It is better to be prudent—the middle strategy—by parking at the first gap.

Being methodical and frequently searching for parking at sporting events, I am very appreciative of this analysis. It reinforces my new-found faith (thanks to my friend) that the meek do not inherit the earth, at least not a good place to park your car.

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