Daylight elimination time
With virtually no opposition, the US Senate passed the Sunshine Protection Act, which, if approved by the House and signed by President Biden, will make daylight savings time (DST) permanent beginning next March.
I was hoping for an end to the very annoying biannual change in time, but figured it would revert to standard, not daylight time. It will be very unsettling for those living in the far north to delay sunrise from 8:30 to 9:30 on the mornings around the winter solstice when days are shortest. However, I suppose that with the creep of DST over the years from 6 months in 1966 to only 4 months now, standard time stood no chance. Evidently the majority prefers not being woken up too early by the bright sun, and they like lighting up evening activities, for example, trick or treating on Halloween.*
An extra yawn one morning in the springtime, an extra snooze one night in the autumn is all that we ask in return for dazzling gifts. We borrow an hour one night in April; we pay it back with golden interest five months later.
Winston Churchill
Going to fixed time nationwide, even if it must be DST, will be very welcome. The clock fiddling got completely out of control in my Twin Cities years ago when the whole region split on going to DST. It came to a head with Minneapolis and Saint Paul being one hour apart for two weeks in 1965.**
It’s about time to settle on one time per zone and allow for the natural variation in daylight caused by our planet being so ‘tilty’. If you do not like it, move to the equator.
*See How Retailers Got American Kids an Extra Hour To Trick-Or-Treat On Halloween
**See Two Cities, Two Times
Statbot AI a bust…sad…now in need of Woebot consoling
Sir David Cox, a giant in the field of statistics, passed away early this year at age 97. Boffins like him cannot be easily replaced—hence the interest in creating artificial intelligence (AI). Therefore, I was excited to see this announcement of NelsonBot5000 (NB5k)—an automated “statistical concierge”. Alas, after submitting several questions such as “what is a p value”, I discovered that NB5k referred all questions to Google. Lame (but a clever gimmick to create engagement!).
“When I was a young cyborg, knee-high to a dial-up modem, PapaBot_x86 used to tell me tales of what the future would hold. However, I never dreamt that we’d ever see the day where free statistical expertise would be available to everyone, instantly.”
– NelsonBot5000
This got me got me going on the state of AI in general. The first thing I found via Google was a New York Times report on an “automated conversational agent” called Woebot that, according to this randomized controlled trial (unblinded), significantly reduces depression. I wanted to share my disappointment about NB5k but Woebot would not talk to me—it requiring a referral from a mental-health provider. My colleague Pat Whitcomb, founder of Stat-Ease, had a good response when I shared similarly trivial woes with him: “GOI!” (get over it).
On the bright side, my work as a consultant, trainer and educator on statistical design of experiments (DOE) remains secure from smart bots. All I ask is that before you ask me for stat help, please consult with Google or the like. Or, better yet, read the trilogy of “Simplified” books on DOE, lead-authored by me based on brainpower from Pat and statistician Martin Bezener.
*“Something Bothering You? Tell It to Woebot. When your therapist is a bot, you can reach it at 2 a.m. But will it really understand your problems?”, Karen Brown, 6/1/21.
Industrial statisticians keeping calm and carrying on with p-values
Posted by mark in Basic stats & math on February 11, 2022
Last week I attended a special webinar on “Statistical Significance and p-values” presented by the European Network of Business and Industrial Statistics (ENBIS). To my relief, none of the speakers called for abandoning the use of p values. Though I feel that p’s should not be a statistic to solely rely on for deeming results significant or not, when used properly they certainly reduce the risk of pressing ahead with spurious outcomes. It was great to get varying perspectives on this issue.
Here are a couple of fun quotes on that I gleaned from this ENBIS event:
- “Surely, God loves the .06 nearly as much as the .05. Can there be any doubt that God views the strength of evidence for or against the null as a fairly continuous function of the magnitude of p?” – Rosnow, R.L. & Rosenthal, R. “Statistical procedures and the justification of knowledge in psychological science”, American Psychologist, 44 (1989), 1276-1284.
- “My definition of a statistician is ‘one who prefers true doubts to false certainty’.” – Stephen Senn (Statistical Consultant, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK)
If you have a strong stomach for stats, see this Royal Society review article: The reign of the p-value is over: what alternative analyses could we employ to fill the power vacuum? It includes discussion of an alternative to p values called the “Akaike information criterion” (AIC). This interested me, because, as a measure for goodness of model-fit, Stat-Ease software provides AICc—a version of this statistic that corrects (hence the appendage “c”) for the small sample sizes of industrial experiments (relative to large retrospective scientific studies).
A very scents-able invention for detecting odors
Posted by mark in science, Uncategorized on January 23, 2022
I was impressed to see this recent New York Times ‘heads-up’ featuring a fellow chemical engineer from University of Minnesota, Chuck McGinley, who operates a lab just a few miles down the road from my home in Stillwater, MN. They got a great shot of Chuck using his Nasal Ranger to sniff around in South St. Paul, last summer. That area of the Twin Cities has emitted unpleasant odors throughout my lifetime—it being founded as a regional stockyard and still the home of a stinky rendering plant.*
“Some of the most recognizable and potent odors, like hydrogen sulfide (think rotten egg) can be sensed at even the tiniest concentrations, like 1 part per billion. ‘If you were to map out the distance from New York to Los Angeles, 1 part per billion would account for only a few inches along that route’.”
– New York Times quoting Professor Jacek Koziel, Iowa State
It turns out that there’s a surprising amount of science behind detecting and characterizing odors as detailed in this blog by St. Croix Sensory, where Chuck works as Technical Director. Unfortunately, the main focus of these experts on smelling must, by necessity, be on detection of ‘off-odors’, such as that emanating from kitty litter (yuk!). If I had a Nasal Ranger, it would be aimed at a rose garden or at a barbecue grill, that is, “on” odors.
PS: Sadly, the current coronaviruses not only cause the loss of smell but also a perverse reversal of olfactory senses called “parosmia.” This can make savory foods smell like rotting sewage as noted in a 1/18/22 report by CNBC on how Covid can turn kids into ‘fussy eaters’ if it changes their sense of smell.
*As reported in 11/22/21, Des Moines Register, ‘You can’t escape it’: Stench spoils downtown experience for some in Des Moines , the residents of South St. Paul won a settlement in 2020 for $750,000 for putting up with the off-putting odors.
Megastudy uncovers secret to motivation for exercise
Posted by mark in Consumer behavior, Wellness on January 10, 2022
Over half of all Americans making resolutions for 2021 made exercise their top priority according to this report from Statista. Unfortunately, most people who decide to work out more often after being ‘flabbergasted’* by the year-end holidays will fall off by the 17th of January—cruelly declared as “Quitter’s Day” by fitness tracker Strava.
However, the results of a new ‘megastudy’ reported by this report last month in Nature provides some hope for certain interventions getting folks back on their treadmills or the like. A team of scientists in collaboration with 24 Hour Fitness created a “Step Up” program that, with a small incentive ($1 in Amazon points), drew in 61,000 members. They then divided up the group into groups to test over 50 four-week programs aimed at increasing weekly gym visits.
Only 8% of the interventions led to participants making a significant change in their behavior. The most successful approach, increasing attendance by 27% versus the control group, came by giving people about 10 cents in reward points for returning to the gym after missing a workout. Surprisingly, a larger monetary reward (~$1.75) produced slightly less improvement.
“Try not to miss more than one workout.”
Advice from lead-author Katy Milkman, a behavioral scientist and professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
I like the New York Times December 8th “Phys Ed” take-home on this megastudy. “Find small ways to reward ourselves when we exercise as planned. Drop a dollar into a bowl for every workout, for instance, and let the proceeds mount.” Better yet, make an appreciable monetary bet with a friend that you will keep up your workouts. Along those lines, why not make it mutual? Fun!
Since this study only involved people motivated enough to join a gym, it would be a stretch (fitness pun?) to expect similar results for those remaining anchored to their couch. Perhaps attaching a dollar bill to a reeling fishing line might lure these slackers into moving about a bit. Worth a try!
*A neologism (newly coined word) becoming popular in these pandemic times of chronic overeating meaning “appalled over how much weight you have gained.”
Turtle-egg predators subjected to Carolina Reaper
Posted by mark in Nature, Uncategorized on December 23, 2021
Wednesday’s Venice Gondolier featured a report on an experiment by a volunteer beach patrol to deter predation of endangered sea-turtle eggs by coyotes and armadillos. With the blessing of Florida’s Fish & Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC), they sprinkled varying amounts of Carolina Reaper pepper (one of the hottest known to humanity) atop four beach-nests over a range of time (with a nearby one being the control–no deterrent):
- 2 tablespoons (tbsp) every 5 days
- 4 tbsp every 5 days
- 2 tbsp every 10 days
- 4 tbsp every 10 days
This forms a full, two-level factorial. That is good thinking. However, they would have done well to replicate it to provide some statistical power for not only the main effects of amount and time-spacing, but also the possible interaction of these factors (maybe a particular combination works best). In any case, these innovative volunteers discovered that the hot pepper kept the coyotes away, but, unfortunately not the armadillos, who quickly learned how to dig under the deterrent and get at the eggs. On the brighter side, the pepper put off an inundation of fire ants—to the great relief of the experimenters going in to inspect the nests.
The FWC is now reviewing these findings to consider modifying the advice they laid out in this 2010 Sea Turtle Nest Predator Control Plan, which focuses only on raccoons and ghost crabs. The Floridian authorities do not go gentle into the night: They trap and/or shoot to kill the cravenly critters.
PS: I’ve never seen a sea turtle, but landlocked terrapins abound in the Venice area, where my wife and I winter. Earlier this month I overheard some tourists discussing what to do with a Gopher tortoise (like the one pictured below) under a beach-way boardwalk—put it directly back in the ocean or just leave by the edge. Luckily for the tortoise they finally decided to let it be, ha ha.
The perfect condiment from the Red Planet: Martian ketchup!
Astrobiologists at Florida Tech’s Aldrin Space Institute recently teamed up with Kraft Heinz to make ketchup from tomatoes grown in Mars-like conditions. Never mind Pillsbury’s Space Food Sticks or Tang—my favorite foods growing up in awe of astronauts: Bring on the Martian ketchup!
The Florida Tech News Bureau provides these fascinating facts and figures on this unearthly food-science development:
- A team of more than a dozen students, scientists, and technicians worked in a greenhouse, known as the Red House, to grow the Martian tomatoes
- Powerful LED lighting on 7,800 pounds of soil from the Mohave Desert provided Martian conditions for the 450 experimental tomato plants grown over a period of two years
- A bottle of “Marz” ketchup survived a 23-mile-altitude balloon-flight that reduced its temperature to minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit.
Here’s another amazing statistic cited widely on the internet: The average American eats 71 pounds of ketchup per year, which Google data supports—it being the condiment of choice in nearly half of USA’s states.*
For more details on the HEINZ Ketchup Marz Edition and a picture of a Martian-like tomato see this November 9 report by the Space Coast Daily.
“Working with the tomato masters at Heinz has allowed us to see what the possibilities are for long term food production beyond Earth.”
Andrew Palmer, Associate Professor of Biological Sciences, Aldrin Space Institute
*(BestLife, 4/28/21, This Is the Most Popular Condiment in Your State, According to Data)
Glow sticks—bright full (not frightful) for fun, safe Halloweening
The daylight here in Minnesota continues to dwindle depressingly, going from nearly 12 hours on the first of October to about 10 hours on the 31st. Therefore, it will be welcome, albeit brief, relief to see glow-stick-waving trick-or-treaters coming by on Halloween night. These colorful light-emitting wands add a lot of pizzazz to the celebration, but most importantly, they make it far safer, especially along my sidewalk-less suburban street.
For the history of this chemiluminescent invention and the science behind it see this week’s feature by Chemical and Engineering News detailing “What are glow sticks, and what’s the chemical reaction that makes them light up?”.
Glow sticks flare out far too fast—only lasting for about 8 to 12 hours, which makes the annual Halloween far more precious. Now we must contend with several weeks of increasingly dark, cold and dreary days (I dislike November very much!) until relief comes with Thanksgiving and the full-on display of holiday lights. However, glow sticks can be bought cheaply just after Halloween. Why not break one out on a nightly basis to bridge the holiday gap? Brighten up!
By the way, if you have ever been tempted to crack open a tube of chemiluminescent fluid, first watch this YouTube video by TKOR (The King of Random). Do not try this at home, especially rubbing the contents on your teeth to make them glow.
Banging my head against the wall about concussions in football
Posted by mark in sports, Uncategorized on October 17, 2021
Being a big fan of football at all levels—grade school (oldest grandson Archer, pictured, going good on the gridiron), high school, college (season-ticket holder for Golden Gophers) and NFL (long-suffering Vikings fan), I hate to see players going down with concussions and their long-term effects of chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE). I suffered several sports-related concussions myself, which makes me even more keen to see advancements in their prevention. Therefore, I was excited to see this report by ESPN on soft-shelled helmets being tested by NFL players.
Unfortunately, however, the statistics on impact reduction, less than 10%, do not appear to warrant putting on a comically squishy covering over a hard-shell football helmet. The advantage is just too marginal. On the other hand, when doing anything involving an appreciable risk without a helmet, for example, riding a bicycle, wearing one becomes essential for concussion reduction. According to this 2017 article in the Journal of Neurosurgery on helmet efficacy they provide significant protection against “devastating intracranial injury”—skull fractures and the like.
Therefore, I am pleased that, unlike most of his teammates, Archer wears his unglamorous helmet.
However, the bad news from neuroscientists is that helmets are “not efficacious” for protection against concussions.
Heads up!
Fly often, fail often, test often
Posted by mark in science, Uncategorized on September 27, 2021
Being addicted to experimenting, I greatly admire the “fly often, fail often, test often” spirit of the University of Minnesota Rocket Team. On Thursday these student rocketeers updated us engineering and other U Mn alums on their latest exploits, including a win and Overall Award in the 30k bracket of the Spaceport America Cup 2021.
Having grown up during the Space Race and celebrated my golden 16th birthday the day Apollo 11 launched off to put the first man on the Moon, I am keen to see such great leaps in technology for amateur rocketry. It astounds me that a group comprised mainly of undergrad aeronautical engineers can design and build an aircraft reaching 30,000 feet (and much higher if not prohibited by the FAA). That beats my personal-best for rocketry by 29,970 feet or so, ha ha.
“It all looked so easy when you did it on paper — where valves never froze, gyros never drifted, and rocket motors did not blow up in your face.”
Milton W. Rosen, rocket engineer and project manager in the US space program between the end of World War II and the early days of the Apollo Program.
With such great “can do” spirit, willingness to fail, and the high-tech resources of our College of Science and Engineering, the flying Gophers will go far in future, I feel sure.