Archive for category pop
Danube nicely routed through Vienna and Budapest
I’ve just returned from a wonderful conference in Vienna of European and African (plus one Malaysian) Design-Expert® software users. Afterwards I spent the weekend in Budapest. First off I must marvel at the chances of a magnificent river such as the Danube just happening to wind its way through these two great cities, as well as Bratislava and Belgrade—all four being capitals. Surely this fortuitous routing of the waterway evidences a higher power. ; )
My knowledge of the histories of these regions in Austria and Hungary increased many-fold, but of course I must acknowledge starting with a very low denominator on this ratio. The tour of the private quarters of the Habsburg Emperors went far too much into the sad story of Sissi—the beautiful Empress who lived like a beautiful bird in a gilded cage and ultimately died at the hands of an anarchist run amok (he actually meant to kill another royal, but settled for her). See the sordid details here.
The history of Budapest was laid out nicely in a display I stumbled across in the Royal Palace on Castle Hill. Via a series of a dozen or so placards with associated artifacts, this stroll through time told a story of repeated destruction. It starts with the mid 13th century construction of a walled town to fend off the Mongol hordes. Then in another hundred years it continues with the building of a keep by Prince Istvan the Angry (a royal pain—I am sure). After some further hundreds of years the Turks came in and the Turks came out. The story told at the church on the Hill is that their ammunition exploded and a statue of Virgin Mary burst out of the wall that they’d plastered over when converting it to a mosque. This catalyzed the successful end of the siege by Christian forces. Holy Mary! Coming to the 20th century things get even worse with the two world wars and the cold war, which of course resulted in various occupations by unwanted outsiders. But all is good now, I think, other than the armies of Americans and other tourists coming left and right on Viking longboats for four-day forays around the town flinging forints (the Hungarian currency) to the local shopkeepers and restaurateurs. It could be worse!
Statisticians apply stylometry to identify authors and they invent algorithms that assess essays
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on June 20, 2012
My colleague Tryg, who, like me, loves word play, drew my attention to this podcast* that explains how “By Their Words You Shall Know Them.” I teed it up on my smart phone and listened on my way to work yesterday—a fun way to pass my half hour commute into Minneapolis from my home in Stillwater, Minnesota. One thing that caught my ear was the early 1960s work by Harvard statistician Frederick Mosteller to pin down who wrote 12 of the 85 Federalist papers published under the pen name “Publius”. He and colleague David Wallace (University of Chicago) applied Bayes; theorem to attribute these writings to James Madison (as opposed to Alexander Hamilton). Mosteller also led the way to today’s reliance on statistics in sports by doing the first known academic analysis of baseball in 1946—concluding that luck rules even in a seven game World Series. He didn’t agree that, though the Cardinals beat his home town Red Sox, the best team actually won.
This analytical dissection of written words has come to be known as “stylometry”. As computing power increases and algorithms develop, writings are being put to the test. For example, see this New York Times Digital Domain column from earlier this month that details developments in ‘essay-scoring engines’. For now the students hold the upper hand on computer-based grading of papers—web-based essay mills can easily throw together fact-laden gibberish that fools the virtual professors. These are easily seen by teachers when they skim the results—check out some goofy passages passed along by Duke University professor Dan Ariely in this editorial for the Los Angeles Times .
The advent of spell-checking and grammar inspection in word processors has been a boon for writers. However, passing these tests does not necessarily lead to clear prose. When I started work as an engineer, the head of our process development group handed me a little booklet by Robert Gunning on “How to Take the Fog Out of Writing”. He advocated short, active sentences—not the passive, long and pedantic style I’d grown accustomed to from academia. See how your writing scores for fog using this online tool by Simon Bond. The quote below scored 20.86. This paragraph came back with a fog index of 9.152 (up to this clause to be precise!). Gunning’s score estimates the years of formal education needed to understand text on a first reading. Thus my writing supposedly can be understood by 10th grader. Draw your own conclusions on the readability of our founding fathers.
“As there is a degree of depravity in mankind which requires a certain degree of circumspection and distrust, so there are other qualities in human nature which justify a certain portion of esteem and confidence.”
– Madison, Federalist Papers #55, 346
*By online Slate magazine’s Lexicon Valley host Mike Vuolo
Marshmallows measure the speed of light (and get put to other good uses)
One of my favorite blogs, Flowing Data, provided me the heads-up on a great lecture by Adam Savage (the Mythbuster’s guy) called “Simple ideas lead to scientific discoveries”. I really enjoyed all of his stories, but especially the one on Hippolyte Fizeau’s measurement of the speed of light in 1849. Ingenious!
Coincidentally, my brother Paul forwarded me a detailing of how one can measure the speed of light with a tray of mini-marshmallows! Check it out at this Science Blog written by theoretical astrophysicist Ethan Siegel. This sharp-fingered fellow (if you view his blog you will see what I mean) goes on to tout a marshmallow-made diorama that ‘peeps’ recent claims of particles going faster than the speed of light.
That leads me to puffing up my daughter Emily, who achieved the “peeple’s choice” award in the Saint Paul Pioneer Press Ninth Annual Marshmallow Peeps Diorama Contest. She and two of her closest peeps produced The Mupeeps Take Minnepeepolis. It looks very much like the view out of my window from Stat-Ease headquarters east of downtown Minneapolis.
By the way, my favorite Muppets are Bunsen and Beaker. See them demo their invention of fireproof paper here. At the Muppets Lab one should always be prepared with fresh marshmallows on a stick. I advise going for two at a time. o——<8
Holing up on a frozen Minnesota lake
The March issue of Minnesota Business magazine, a valuable source of information and insight for growing companies,* provided a fascinating statistic, hard to believe really: 25,000—the number of ice fishing holes drilled last month for an ice-fishing contest on Gull Lake. Minnesota-based StikeMaster Corporation provided the augers. See their video for a demonstration.
Meanwhile (reported on page 44), elsewhere on Gull Lake (far from the 25,000 holes, I hope), Grand View Lodge offered the ideal meeting place for getting away from the office. See this report from our local CBS television affiliate—you will be amazed.
Sadly it seems that spring is nearly sprung so we must now endure 6 months of warm weather before the fun can begin again.
*Full disclosure: My daughter Emily is Graphic Designer for the production of this publication by Tiger Oak Media of Minneapolis.
Getting a head of beer
With winter winding down my thoughts turn to warmer times ahead when the cover comes off the grill and a cold beer hits the spot. Last weekend my daughter and her husband motored down to New Ulm for Schell Brewery’s Bock Fest—a sure harbinger of Spring (and the desperation of home-bound Minnesotans). Increasingly I find myself turning to this next generation for keeping me on the bubble for brews. For example, I now know that it’s helpful to carmelize freshly-tapped bock beer by poking it with a red-hot iron—preferably one laid among fiery logs until glowing hot. 
But never mind that, I want to pass along some results from another of this younger set, Tracy Lenz, on a more mundane aspect of drinking beer—achieving just the right head of foam on the pour. For a graduate class in industrial engineering at Arizona State University (ASU) taught by DOE-guru Doug Montgomery, she used Design-Expert® software to experiment on foam height. A local microbrewer suggested that Tracy’s project team study keg pressure, temperature at keg and using Biofoam to make the brew more ‘sudsy’. The team included two very different beers in the same experiment design, which turned out to be problematic for modeling, so let’s concentrate on one—an American red ale.*
It turns out that red ales foam readily so they need no encouragement with Biofoam. Take a look at this response surface plot from the ASU study. Figuring on 2 centimeters of foam as a good head puts the sweet spot (shaded green) at the no biofoam (-1) side with pressure needed to be set low (-1). This result is achieved only if temperature is maintained at low level.
So there you go—a vital problem (especially for graduate-engineering students) solved. Just one catch though—how you pour the beer into the glass may be the biggest factor for achieving a good head. Here again the next generation comes to my rescue, for example last summer at an outdoor reception that featured a beer wagon with my favorite on tap: Lift Bridge Beer Company’s Farm Girl Saison ale. My glass foamed over no matter how I positioned it under the tap. It turns out that the trick is pouring along the side and then at just the right moment straightening up the glass while turning off the flow. See what I mean via this Youtube video. I found it easier just to stand by the beer wagon with an empty pint and a forlorn look until one of the younger fellows took pity on me. Cheers!
*I learned from one of my sons that an ale ferments at the top, whereas a lager ferments at that bottom. This is just one of many differences that are detailed by this beer-faq.
Proofing Blackbeard’s rum
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on September 11, 2011
Being only about a week from this year’s Talk Like a Pirate Day this Atlantic Monthly article (read belatedly from a backlog of magazines) about Gunpowder on the Rocks caught my eye. I like the idea of setting a drink on fire and then drinking it, as Blackbeard did to impress his pirate crew.
It turns out that this is a practical test of rum to ensure it hasn’t been watered down by a ne’er-do-well hornswoggler, as you can see in this video by experimental archaeologist Jeff Lindow. After watching this, I decided not to try this at home as it would no doubt shiver my timbers. However, if it gets cold enough this winter, I might consider a swig of this gunpowder-infused Man O’War rum. Yo ho ho!
A Santa Claus machine
Someone just sent me this amazing video of a 3D printer copying a crescent wrench – moving parts and all. The company featured, Z-Corp, is a Stat-Ease client. See this case study showing how their engineers used response surface methods (RSM) to discover a small window of operability.
Another client of Stat-Ease, Stratasys, also offers rapid-prototyping machines, but they make use of another technology called fused deposition modeling (FDM) – explained nicely by this schematic from Ferris State University. I’ve seen these machines at work. They run from plastic line similar to what’s used in a weed whacker. Based on a computerized blueprint, this material (suitable for functional parts, not just prototypes) is melted layer-by-layer into complex shapes. Check out this full-scale turboprop engine produced by FDM.
The next step will be the development of machines that can make whatever you need out of whatever you happen to have nearby that can be shoveled in the hopper. Then people who really want to get away from the crowds can rocket off to any old unoccupied planetismal and set themselves up with house and home.
“It’s possible to imagine a machine that could scoop up material – rocks from the Moon or rocks from asteroids – process them inside and produce just about any product: washing machines or teacups or automobiles or starships. Once such a machine exists it could gather sunlight and materials that it’s sitting on, and produce on call whatever product anybody wants to name, as long as somebody knows how to make it and those instructions can be given to the machine. I think the name Santa Claus Machine for such a device is appropriate.”
– Physicist Theodore Taylor (1978)
Commuting by car or bike: Studies by UK statisticians
This month’s issue (June 2011, volume 8, issue 2) of the Royal Statistical Society magazine Significance [motto “statistics making sense” 🙂 ] features two intriguing articles on commuting.
The first one details Martin Griffiths, a math lecturer at U Manchester, “trying to pull out of the drive” (pp 89-91). This poor fellow must wait upwards of 2 minutes just to get on the road from his property. Imagine the frustration of a somewhat random stream of cars blocking your way out. Then, just as you see a gap, another car comes along to fill it. Griffiths provides a very impressive formula for average wait time based on a Poisson distribution. He factors in the average number of cars passing by as well as the time taken to pull out into the flow. The bottom line: It does not pay to be timid. You’d best mind the gap (inside joke for anyone who’s traveled London’s subways) and make a move!
The second study* comes from a biker, Dr. Jeremy Groves, who spends up to 2 hours or more commuting to his work at Chesterfield Royal Hospital. Thankfully his ride gets considerably shorter in summer when he needn’t wear baggy outerwear, which creates a real drag (Groves estimates 30% more wind resistance). This cycling enthusiast bought a new bicycle recently – one that featured a carbon frame, as opposed to the steel one he’d bought second-hand. Being a fan of randomized (“randomised” in UK spelling) trials, Groves completed a series of runs with one or the other of his bikes – measuring the times taken for the ride from his home in Sheffield to his work at hospital. Seeing his run chart starting off very raggedly at the high end in January, I transcribed only the latter 28 runs (14 of each) for the chart shown. 
Obviously from the overlap in the least-signficant-difference (LSD) bars the results remain inconclusive. (If you have trouble seeing this, click the graph for a larger view of it.) The difference is less than 1 minute in favor of the very costly carbon-framed bicycle. Given a 3.5 minute standard deviation under summer conditions, it would take 400 total runs (200 each) to resolve whether this is a true advantage, according to a power calculation I did with the aid of Design-Expert® software. Dr. Groves has moved on to another experiment for this summer – he plans to randomly load a 4 kg weight on his bicycle (the carbon one, I presume). Aside from being a glutton for punishment, I suppose this fellow wonders how much it slows him down when he must carry in his laptop.
* “Bicycle weight and commuting time: A randomised trial,” pp95-96.
Fun summer-time experiment: Super-cool beer so it instantly freezes solid
It turns out that if a bottle of beer is put in the freezer for long enough, and then removed while it is still liquid and, lastly, given a sudden shock, the beer will instantly freeze solid. I saw this confirmed by the pop-science TV show Mythbusters in their episode 153, originally aired on 11/10/10. Based on trial-and-error experimentation their Build Team found that 3 hours of cooling time sufficed to create the delightful phenomenon. See the instant beer-freeze demonstrated by EasyBarTricks.com here. For detailed instructions on how to try this at home or in a classroom, plus a nerdy explanation (think PVNERT) by physics and math teacher Daryl Taylor, check out this website.
Of course I had to try this for myself. However, not being one who ever leaves well-enough alone, I tried light beer (Miller, bottled in clear glass) side by side with the recommended Corona – two of each. Could this be a factor (light versus regular brew)? After being careful to wait at least 3 hours for the quartet of brews to super-cool, I brought them out for a family party. Two of the beers crystallized when smacked on our kitchen cutting board, but the other two did not. Here’s a twist, though: None of the bottles were uncapped first, so how does that gibe with the PV-nerd’s explanation?
Alas, one of the light beers crystallized and the other did not – ditto for the Corona, so my results, albeit semi-successful, were indeterminate on the issue of light vs regular brews. The good news is that we salvaged two bottles of beer (the frozen ones become undrinkable).
Feel free to weigh in with your theories and experimental results from this beer trick. One thing I learned from my first try – a lot more beer would be good, along with a walk-in freezer (or the backyard in mid-winter).
An Easter experiment for those who still believe a bunny bears eggs* *(Beware of the green ones!)
Today’s Saint Paul Pioneer Press “Bulletin Board” provides an idea on how to provide some added delight for any children who still believe in the Easter Bunny: Have them plant one of their jelly beans, then watch for it to grow into a lollipop. Doesn’t that sound like a fun experiment!
By the way, be careful with the green jelly beans – they cause acne (p<0.05) according to this exhaustive statistical-study of every available color.