Archive for category sports
Flipping out with frisbees
This weekend I enjoyed a nine-hole round of disc golf—a great way to enliven an outdoor walk via some friendly competition and the satisfying clink of chains when making a shot.
The trick is to control the pitch of the aerodynamic platters. They must be thrown at an angle that better players than me, such as my oldest son Ben, refer to as ‘hyzers’ or ‘anhyzers’. I am not quite sure which is which. All I can think of when he tries to explain the difference is that I really need a six pack of Anheuser-Busch beer when my anhyzer throw goes off into a bush, which happens far too often.
Check out this greatest shot (an anhyzer?) in disc golf history by World Champion James Conrad earlier this month.
Getting back to beer, this recent report by Ars Technica provides a ‘heads-up’ on why coasters fly so poorly—flipping on average only a half second into their flight. See all the details in Beer Mats make bad Frisbees published by three German physicists last month. Evidently “the crucial effect responsible for the flipping is found to be the lift attacking not in the center of mass but slightly offset to the forward edge”, which “induces a torque leading to a precession towards backspin orientation.” Now you know! It’s not that you are drinking too much due to being quarantined too long during the pandemic. Whew!
Archer’s Big Bounce Experiment
I am a big fan of University of Minnesota Athletics—even more so now after they sponsored a Science of Basketball project for grade schoolers. My 9-year-old grandson Archer jumped at the chance to put a variety of basketballs to the test with my help. For the results, see the video we submitted to the UMn judges.
Archer’s findings–wood being better than rubber for bounce–stand out in graphics generated with Design-Expert software.
Archer enjoyed doing this science project. I feel sure it helped him understand what it takes to design an experiment, do it properly and analyze the result. My only disappointment is that the high-tech cell-phone app for measuring height, which I used for my experiment on elastic spheres, failed due to too much echo in the gym, most likely.
However, I discovered another intriguing basketball-physics experiment at the Science Buddies STEM website. It determines where a bouncing ball’s energy goes . This requires deployment of an infrared-temperature gun with a laser beam. Awesome! Archer will like that (if he can wrestle the laser gun away from me).
Major League Baseball experimenting with robot umpires
Posted by mark in sports, Uncategorized on February 19, 2020
After a somewhat successful* year-long trial of automated balls and strikes (ABS) in the Atlantic League, MLB will bring in these ‘robots’ to second-guess their human umpires at nine of Florida’s spring-training games. The ABS system makes use of TrackMan radar technology, already in play for StatCast.
After MLB’s tech-team improves ABS’s reliability and accuracy, it might be worth using, but only if it speeds up the game. Using ABS simply to challenge calls will just make things worse, while eliminating the spectacle of on-field blow-ups by volatile managers like Billy Martin (former Minnesota Twin). When the calls are made by invisible radar, who do you throw the dirt at?
“You turn back (to the umpire and say), ‘TrackMan?’ They say, ‘Yeah,'” “‘Well, I’m not going to argue with you.’ Because it’s the robots.”
Southern Maryland Blue Crabs outfielder Tony Thomas commenting on the experimental use of ABS in the Atlantic League
PS. When the baseball robots get smart enough to call balks, then we’d all best bunker down for them taking over the world.
*Baseball America reporting Imperfections And All, Robo Umps Make Significant Impact
Boffins baffled by baseballs being bashed beyond ballpark borders
On May 24, Major League Baseball released this scientific report on a puzzling increase–nearly 50%–in home runs from 0.86 to 1.26 per game over the last three years (2014-17).
A panel of 10 experts, including math and stats professors as well as PhDs in physics, saw nothing changed in the properties of the baseballs—size, weight, seam height, and COR (coefficient of restitution—a measure of the ball’s “bounciness”). However, they did observe a reduction in drag, an aerodynamic phenomenon that may be due to the rubber pill being more centered and thus causing the ball to stay rounder while spinning in flight. This is a very impressive explanation. But, if I were an umpire for this study, I’d call these fellows out.
Based on the results of this study, the Commissioner will, among other things, consider adding humidors to all stadiums to keep the baseballs under more controlled storage conditions, and create standards for mud rubbing. It seems that he’s getting seriously down and dirty on home runs.
I tip my ball cap to such marvelous frivolity for application of science and statistics, flavored with a fillip of voodoo. What a game!
“We do admit that we do not understand this.”
– Study Chairman Alan Nathan, Professor of Physics Emeritus, University of Illinois.
Patriots make a mockery of 249 to 1 odds against them
Check out this Super Bowl win probability chart by ESPN Stats & Info. It remains bottomed out at an Atlanta Falcons victory from halftime on to the end of regulation, after which the Patriots ultimately prevail. When New England settled for a field goal to cut their deficit to 16 points (28-to-12), the ESPN algorithm registered a 0.4% probability for them to win, being 9 minutes and 44 seconds left in the game. That computes to 249 to 1 odds against a Patriot victory. Ha!
I am not terribly surprised that a team could overcome such odds. The reason is that on December 29, 2006 I attended the Insight bowl in Tempe, Arizona where the Red Raiders of Texas, after falling behind 38-7 with 7:47 remaining in the third quarter, rallied to score 31 unanswered points and ultimately defeat my Gophers in overtime. At the time it was the greatest comeback of all time in a bowl game, matched only after another decade passed with the 2016 Alamo Bowl victory by the TCU Horned Frogs, who trailed the Oregon Ducks 0-31 at halftime. But they had more time than the Gophers to throw away their sure victory. I entered our 2006 chances of victory in this football win probability calculator. It says 100.00% that Minnesota must win. Ha!
The laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacious in particular.
– Edward Gibbon
The most useless sports stat I’ve seen yet
When Minnesota Twin Trevor Plouffe came up to bat last night at Target Field they flashed this totally irrelevant stat up on the scoreboard: “Through July Plouffe is the only Major Leaguer to have at least 35 at bats vs 1 team.” I wondered how anyone can come up with such obscure information. This XKCD cartoon explains it.
My Minnesota Twins fail on fantasy front
Supposedly hope springs eternal at the start of every baseball season, no matter how miserable the prospects for your home team. Sadly the statisticians at the Wall Street Journal burst that bubble by skewering my squad—saying yesterday that It’s Not a Fantasy, the Minnesota Twins Are Bad. Their “Roster Reality” ranking leaves the hapless Twinkies last. Fantasy team owners figured only 3 players rated a position in the first 276 drafted. That is bad.
Being a homer, when I did my draft I filled my last position with Byron Buxton—the number 1 prospect in all of Major League Baseball. Unfortunately if BB does make it up to Minnesota this year it will be after the Twins get eliminated from contention. On the bright side I expect that will again happen with plenty of games remaining to let the up-and-comers get in some good playing time.
By the way, the Twins rallied this afternoon with 2 runs in the 9th to win out over the hated White Sox and prevent them from a 3 game sweep. That’s a 1 game winning streak! Woohoo!
Boo Yahoo for breaking bad on my MAD
Posted by mark in sports, Uncategorized on November 20, 2013
“Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action!”
— Ian Fleming
, Goldfinger
A simple, yet effective, measure of forecasting prowess is the mean absolute deviation (MAD). Yahoo’s computer projections for fantasy football do poorly on this measure. For example, one of my teams is thus far, through the first 11 weeks of this season, at 16 points MAD from an average projection of 70 per game. That’s an error exceeding 20%! But to make matters far worse, their forecast on this team is terribly biased. Given my indignation you can guess which way Yahoo has been erring (yes, I am a loser)—consistently over-estimating how points my players actually accumulate. Enough data has come in to make this statistically significant as indicated by the confidence interval on the margin of error (MOE) being below zero. Between my fantasy team and the Vikings it’s hard to say which is doing worse at underachieving. Thank goodness for the Minnesota Gopher gridioners exceeding all expectations. That is a ray of sunshine in a gloomy Fall for a football fanatic like me.
Quants and nerds bring science and reason to the dark fortress of superstition
Posted by mark in sports, Uncategorized on November 2, 2013
Alison Gopnik, The Wall Street Journal’s “Mind & Matter” columnist, goes a bit over the top today while paying homage to baseball’s statisticians. But one must be mindful that she teaches at U Cal Berkeley—less than 15 miles from the home field of the Oakland Athletics and “Moneyball” wizard Billy Beane. At the other end of the country the Boston Red Sox rule supreme in Major League Baseball in large part to calculations by their adviser Bill James—inventor of sabermetrics: the empirical analysis of baseball, especially statistics that measure in-game activity.
However, BoSox hero (one of many!) Jonny Gomes, who got a lot of disrespect for his measures—yet came through in the clutch, came back with this shot in an on-field interview with FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal after the clincher at Fenway Park:
“There’s a lot of sabermetrics, there’s a lot of numbers and stuff. The whole WAR stat. But when you go to playoffs, you want me to go to war with.”
WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement. The Red Sox led MLB on this statistic as shown here. Gomes only rated a bit over 1 on WAR. A “solid starter” should achieve a WAR of 2 or more according to this white paper by Boston’s Yawkey Report.
It’s hard to argue with success, but take that Jonny!
Statisticians break down March Madness brackets (and rule things in general)
Before the first round of NCAA basketball playoffs a number of pundits favored my Minnesota team to upset UCLA—one of the commentators before the broadcast last night went so far as to say they were a “lock”. Now I believe it. (They won.) However, I am doubtful they can beat Florida Sunday—gophers just do not stand a chance against gators. For a more reasoned breakdown on the odds for Sunday and beyond, see this bracket filled out superstar statistician Nate Silver for the New York Times.
People who can crunch data like Silver are in big demand these days according to Wall Street Journal Numbers Guy Carl Bialik in his column on March 2. The jobs site icrunchdata (very descriptive!) posted 28,305 openings for jobs in statistics and the like last month—up from 16,500 openings three years ago (I love data like this!).
It seems that number-herding nerds now rule, but there is a catch according to Dan Thorpe, senior director for analytics at Wal-Mart. He says that “the bulk of the people coming out [with statistics degrees] are technically competent but they’re missing the consultative and the soft skills, everything else they need to be successful.” So, which to do you prefer—good math skills (and lots of money) or an attractive personality (and many friends)? My advice is to aim for some of both.