Archive for category Wellness
Simple and cheap safety precautions against the small risk of drowning in an automobile
I always thought that if I was in a car that went into water, I’d be cool enough to roll down the windows, or wait until it submerges before opening the door (otherwise the pressure differential makes it impossible). Based on actual experimentation, the hosts of the television show Mythbusters felt the same way, that is, until viewers pointed out that many cars turn turtle as they sink. So in a show I watched last month they [Jamie Hyneman and Adam Savage] tried this. It was a disaster! The Mythbuster driver [Adam] survived only by breathing from an emergency air source, and the safety diver had to cut his way out of a seat belt that wouldn’t release! See this recap to learn what went wrong. What they don’t show is how at first the car just floated, so it seemed like no big deal; but then when it sank, the automobile went down incredibly fast. En route to the bottom of the lake the car spun around so much that the occupants would’ve drowned for sure. Scary!
After this epiphany, I ordered several of these inexpensive (<$5) safety hammers (see one pictured) for cars owned by me and my offspring.
Check out this post by First Aid Monster for another video showing how fast you can go underwater when a car runs into a canal, river, pond, lake or ocean. They suggest buying a safety hammer and provide a link to one similar to what I bought.
When I advised family and co-workers to be prepared for being trapped in a car that goes underwater, it was met by a few with great skepticism.
One individual wondered how many people die this way, figuring it being so unlikely as to not be worth any worries. From internet research, the best I can figure is that about 10% of all drowning occur in submerged cars. Then using statistics from this graphic by the National Safety Council putting the odds of death by drowning at 1 in 1000, I figure that dying this way in a car occurs at about a 1 in 10,000 rate – somewhat less likely than dying in a plane crash. I’ve flown hundreds of times and never yet come across anyone refusing to buckle up as required when taking off and landing. Why not?
Another person expressed strong doubts as to whether the hammers could break an automobile window. I cannot yet say from first-hand experimentation, but this video provides convincing evidence, I feel.
Anyways, I’m putting the little <$5 safety hammers in all my cars. Why not? It could come in handy some day, if not for me to escape a submerged car, then maybe for some other event that requires breaking glass – someone trapped in a car crash on land, for example.
Bear in mind that I am a Minnesotan — a state that boasts of having 10,000 lakes and where a bridge fell down into the Mississippi not that long ago. Furthermore, I live in a town (Stillwater) with a rotten old lift bridge that may be the next to fail according to this recent report by The History Channel.
Beware of 5th poly mole!
I found it amusing that, when forced to try modeling my weight data (see previous blog), my DOE software recommended a fifth order polynomial* model! That’s a bit more ‘tayloring’ (Ha ha – inside joke) than I really needed. In fact, just to show how silly this is (5th order!) I offer the following scenario as a cautionary tale. Perhaps it may help to dissuade others who make similarly nonsensical models from what is really just (naturally) randomly generated data.
Looking forward to a work/vacation trip to Tampa in late March (I really will be going there, I am happy to say!), let’s pretend that I use this fifth-order model to help me decide whether to bring a swimming suit. Hmmm, extrapolating out to day 75, when I finish my conference and head for the Gulf shore, the over-fitted model (really should just use the mean!) predicts that by then I will balloon to nearly 100 pounds over my norm. In this case I may easily be mistaken for a beached whale!
It’s just not right to apply model-fitting tools to what is not a DOE, but rather simply a process run-out at steady-state conditions. Extrapolation makes this even more dangerous by far. See the graph for a case in point.
*(A math-phobic person I am acquainted with, whom I will not identify, mockingly refers to these equations as “poly moles” — hence my title for this blog.)
“Welcome, Body Mass seeker”
Posted by mark in Uncategorized, Wellness on February 27, 2011
This is the greeting from Steve Halls, MD, at his web weight-calculator. After a fair amount of searching on the internet, I found this site on body-mass the easiest to use and informative. However, I cannot speak on its accuracy. I will only admit that it provided far less scary news (and realistic, I feel) about my own weight than other websites giving advice on this vital subject.
According to the “updated hall.md v2” standards, I am “marginally overweight” at the 53rd percentile of other American males at my age and height. As we like to say in Minnesota, this could be worse, so it’s not so bad.
Discussing what should be the “ideal” weight would take up a great deal of time and energy: Never mind that. What I want to do is focus on monitoring weight. For example, I just completed the pictured outlier-detecting run-chart* on my 20 weighings** thus far this year. Notice that none of the results fall outside of the 95 percent confidence limits.
Even so, after I penciled in my number for the highlighted point, my wife hassled me a bit about going overweight when she saw . I predicted that she would see a regression to the mean, which didn’t impress her one bit. Nevertheless, the value of being patient by charting data over a period of time can be seen in this instance – it vindicates me not reacting to one result.
Coincidentally, our contract trainer Doug Hubbell came to Minneapolis for our new Advanced Formulations workshop. He is the author of a handbook for managers seeking quality improvement (Managing for Profits – to be published soon). Doug is a plain-talking straight-shooter who rifles in on what’s needed to stop chronic manufacturing waste. Charting is a powerful part of his arsenal of quality tools. His reaction to me mentioning my monitoring of weight was “I hope you do not expect this chart to help you lose pounds.” Naturally I wouldn’t admit to that, but, honestly, it did cross my (hopeful!) mind. However, I am mainly just trying to track a very gradual increase of about 1 pound per year since my high-school graduation, when I was in the best shape of my life.
The battle against the bulge continues…
*Using Design-Expert® software’s diagnostics tools. I focused on a chart that deletes each point before calculating its deviation in terms of standard deviation, which makes it more sensitive to statistical outliers. For details, see this Wikipedia entry on Studentized residual (it explains internal and external methods).
**Done with a new bathroom scale that I really like – this Precision Digital model by EatSmart.
Grade A for long-term health prognosis
I took a high-school classmate out to lunch today for his birthday. Now in his late 50s, my friend has aged well – evidently as healthy as can be. Being that he graduated 6th in our class, my buddy’s exceptional fitness of body and mind fits a profile of well-being that’s characteristic of individuals who excelled academically, according to this report by the New York Times. In a nutshell, a long-term longitudinal study of over 10,000 aging students found that, by their early 60s, those near the top of their class were half as likely to report declines in health than their academically-inferior peers. It seems that the studs for studying end up being a lot heartier than the partyers.
“Academic performance is strongly linked to health in later life.”
– Pamela Herd, associate professor of public affairs and sociology at the University of Wisconsin in Madison and study-author of Education and Health in Late-life among High School Graduates
Happy holidays!
The recent collapse of our Hubert H. Hump-free (ha ha) Metrodome makes it seem like we Minnesotans must be completely deflated (pun intended) from the extraordinary snowfall this month. However, there is an upside to this weather – excellent cross-country skiing conditions. As you can see, this has brightened up my disposition. I like nothing better than a ski through the woods near my home in Stillwater, where I often find myself all alone except for a startled deer — I almost literally ran across a doe (the female ungulate, not a design-of-experiment ) yesterday, for example.
Being in good spirits myself, I wish the same for you this holiday season. Enjoy!
“He gives his harness bells a shake
To ask if there is some mistake.
The only other sound’s the sweep
Of easy wind and downy flake.
The woods are lovely, dark and deep.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep.
And miles to go before I sleep.”
– Excerpt from “Stopping By Woods on a Snowy Evening” by Robert Frost
PS. The shot from ground-level provides the perspective of one of our indigenous snow fleas, which I often see in late winter when it warms up a bit. It’s fun to watch them jump around at random.
Pigging out in Italy – a 30-meter pork roast
Posted by mark in Uncategorized, Wellness on November 21, 2010
We are gathering quantities of food for a Thanksgiving feast at the Anderson home this Thursday. As my stomach rumbles* in anticipation, my thoughts turn to another great feast that I saw prepared last summer in Bergamo, Italy.** There they prepared pork (or porchetta, as they say), rather than the turkey we prefer in the New World. What made this Bergamo barbecue so singular was the way the cooked their pigs – sewn together into a 30 meter roast! See the results in this video I took (produced by my daughter Emily).
A meter or two of this porchetta would be the perfect warm up for our Thanksgiving banquet. I wonder what these Italians would do to dress up a turkey. They sure know how to create a spectacle!
*In medical terms known as “borborygmi” – a normal symptom of hunger.
**See this report
Brain-bending thoughts on a coffee experiment
Posted by mark in design of experiments, Uncategorized, Wellness on October 24, 2010
The Stat-Ease training center here at our world headquarters in Minneapolis features a wonderful single-cup brewing system that you can see demoed here. When we are not holding a workshop, I sometimes sneak in to steal a cup late in the day. By then I am reaching my limit, so I brew a “half-calf” at the half-cup setting. Being a chemical engineer, I calculate that, in this case, half of half makes a whole, that is, coffee with the normal concentration of caffeine. Does that make sense?
Making a tasty and effective cup of coffee is a huge deal for knowledge workers who need to keep their heads in gear from start to finish of every single day. One of our workshop students, a PhD, has been picking my brain about testing coffee blends on her staff of scientists. She proposes to do a mixture design such as I did on varying types of beers (see Mixture Design Brews Up New Beer Cocktail—Black & Blue Moon).
Obviously overall liking on a sensory basis should be first and foremost for such an experiment on coffee – a 5 to 9-point scale works well for this.* However, the tricky part is assessing the impact of coffee for accelerating information processing and general problem-solving, which I hypothesize depends on level of caffeine. I wonder if an online “brain training” service, such as this one developed by neuroscientists at Stanford and UCSF, might provide a valid measure.
The down side of doing a proper test on whether coffee improves cognitive skills will be the necessity of reverting to the base line, that is, every morning getting up and trying to function without the first cup.
“A mathematician is a machine for turning coffee into theorems.”
— Alfréd Rényi
*Turn your volume down (to not hear the advert) and see this primer on sensory evaluation by S-Cool– a UK educational site for teenagers.
Opportunistic eating a problem for new college students
A study recently published online by the Journal of Adolescent Health concludes that female (but not male!) students in dorms with dining halls gained significantly more weight than those who were forced to go out to eat. The lead author, Kandice Kapinos (University of Michigan), took advantage of the practice of colleges to randomly assign dorm rooms. Specifically, she and her study team examined the weight gain of 388 freshmen at Marquette University. (See a few more details in this press release.).However, they relied on self-reporting rather than direct observation and measurement, which creates some doubt about the validity of their conclusions. After all, people have been known to fudge about their weight. 😉
Nevertheless, based on observation of three daughters and two sons who went off to college, I believe that Kapinos et al are really on to something. This was sealed in my mind from the observation of my youngest girl, who soon will start her third year in a biochemistry program. She said it really is very simple – the female students hang around the dorm dining hall for social reasons, during which times they naturally munch on stuff and pack on the pounds. I think for the good of their students it would be wise of schools not to put cafeterias in the dorms.
“I think perhaps that women are a little more socially oriented at college, and one social thing they engage in might be, ‘Let’s go get a snack,’ Men may not tend to do that as much.”
— Wayne Westcott, Senior Fitness Executive for the YMCA in Quincy, Massachusetts
By the way, putting on weight after going away to college — the proverbial “freshman 15” – is bound to happen, I think; and for both men and women. I gained 15 pounds after moving into a dorm at Michigan State University. It had a dining hall in the building. However, I’ll bet I’d have added weight just the same even if the meals were served elsewhere on campus.
PB&J please, but hold the jelly (and margarine) and put it on toast – a mixture design combined with a categorical factor
Posted by mark in design of experiments, Uncategorized, Wellness on May 27, 2010
My colleague Pat Whitcomb just completed the first teach of Advanced Formulations: Combining Mixture & Process Variables. It inspired me to develop a virtual experiment for optimizing my perfect peanut butter and jelly (PB&J) sandwich. This was a staple for me and my six siblings when we were growing up. Unfortunately, so far as I was concerned, my mother generously slathered margarine on the bread (always white in those days – no whole grains) and then thick layers of peanut butter and jelly (always grape). As you see* in the response surfaces for overall liking [ 🙁 1-9 🙂 ], I prefer that none of the mixture ingredients (A: Peanut butter, B: Margarine, C: Jelly) be mixed, and I like the bread toasted. This analysis was produced using the Combined design tab from Design-Expert® software version 8 released by Stat-Ease earlier this year. I’d be happy to provide the data set, especially for anyone that may be hosting me for a PB&J dinner party. 😉
*Click to enlarge the plots so you can see the legend, etc.
Two-level factorial experimentation might make music for my ears
Posted by mark in design of experiments, Uncategorized, Wellness on May 9, 2010
I am a fan of classical music – it soothes my mind and lifts my spirits. Maybe I’m deluded, but I swear there’s a Mozart effect* on my brain. However, a big monkey wrench comes flying in on my blissful state when my stereo speaker (always only one of the two) suddenly goes into a hissy fit. I’ve tried a number of things on a hit-or-miss basis and failed to find the culprit. At this point I think it’s most likely the receiver itself – a Yamaha RX496. However, before spending the money to replace it, I’d like to rule out a number of other factors:
- Speaker set: A vs B
- Speaker wire: Thin vs Thick.
- Source: CD vs FM-Radio
- Speaker: Left vs Right.
It’s very possible that an interaction of two or more factors may be causing the problem, so to cover all bases I need to do all 16 possible combinations (2^4). But, aside from the work this involves for all the switching around of parts and settings, I am stymied by the failure being so sporadic.
Anyways, I feel better now having vented this to my blog while listening to some soothing Sunday choir music by the Dale Warland Singers on the local classical radio station. I’m taking no chances: It’s playing on my backup Panasonic SA-EN25 bookshelf system.
*Vastly over-rated according to this report by the Skeptic’s Dictionary.