“In God we trust. All others must provide data.”
Dr. William Schaffner, a preventive medicine specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, quoted by NY Times on 2/2/20 in their report that “Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say”.
Stay calm and carry on is a good mantra for these unsettled times. But it pays to keep an eye on developments with a critical view on the facts so far as they can be ascertained. Here are some interesting statistics and data-driven observations on the impact thus far and in future of 2019-nCoV from the New York Times:
- Fatalities now come to 425 in mainland China as of Tuesday morning according to this latest news, eclipsing Chinese deaths from SARS (349). For a view of its spread throughout Asia, see the Coronavirus Map via the link above.
- For a very enlightening interactive-graphical view graphics see this in-depth report.
Keep in mind that much remains to be determined. For example, it may turn out that 2019-nCoV for better (less fatal) or worse (more infectious) may turn out to be more like 2009 H1N1 Swine flu than SARS.
You, like me, may be curious about the effectiveness of wearing a mask. From this NPR investigation, I surmise that N95 respirators, such as those made by 3M, work best, but only if fitted properly and worn with great discipline in not touching one’s face. In any case during this flu season, we all need to wash our hands with soap and water often (hand sanitizers don’t work nearly so well by my reckoning) and stay home if we get sick.
For what it’s worth, that’s my take for now. You all must make your own judgments. All I suggest is that you not let fear rule—assess the data and adjust your thinking as more accumulates. But best you be conservative on the safe side.
PS. Those of you who fly frequently are well-advised to check out this advice from yesterday’s Wall Street Journal. I am comforted by the statistic of 99.9% particulate removal and thus “the cabin air environment is not conducive to the spread of most infectious diseases” per the CDC. However, as always, it’s best to be careful during times when the flu and/or other viruses run rampant.