Immediately after starting my first process development as a chemical engineer in the summer of 1974 between my junior and senior years at University of Minnesota, I learned that the real world does not operate exactly as one would expect from the first principles of science learned in school. All my results varied, making it difficult to know what was real and what occurred due to chance. That led me to embrace statistics as preached by my supervisors at General Mills Chemical. (Thank goodness for the company’s agricultural heritage and thus an appreciation for the knowledge imparted by pioneering statistician Ronald Fisher to crop developers.) Thus, I can appreciate the randomness of Olympic results, particularly for downhill ski racers.

As explained by two-time gold medalist Ted Ligety in the New York Times, The Best Ski Racers Often Do Not Win Gold. Two days later Breezy Johnson won gold in downhill by only 0.04 seconds. (Sadly, this was the race where Minnesotan Lindsey Vonn crashed.) To provide some context, blink your eyes—this typically taking more than twice as long as the margin of Johnson’s victory.*

Ligety explains that the greatest women’s skier of all time, Mikaela Shiffrin, has won only 20% of her Olympic races, whereas Michael Phelps, the best swimmer ever, won over 75% of his Olympic races. He says this far greater uncertainty stems from variables such as wind, snow, light and ruts. By watching the audiovisual breakdown by Ligety et al (see for yourself by clicking the link above in you did not do so already), I gained a great appreciation of these and other factors affecting the outcome of any given race.

“If … a cloud comes and there’s super flat light … and … the girls in front of you had sun … that is going to make a huge difference. When you are in the start gate you have to go no matter what.”

– Trica Mangan, two-time U.S. Olympian

P.S. Along these lines of the razor’s edge separating skiers at Olympian levels, I highly recommend the classic 1969 movie “Downhill Racer” starring Robert Redford. After he died in September, I watched this for the first time. I highly recommend it. Gripping!

*Check out the amazing graphics theTimes provided after the race to See How Breezy Johnson Won