Archive for category Wellness
Moving averages creating coronavirus confusion
Posted by mark in Uncategorized, Wellness on October 26, 2020
The statistics being reported on Covid-19 keep pouring in—far too much information by my reckoning. Per the nation’s top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, I focus on positivity rates as a predictor of the ups and down of the coronavirus. However, the calculations for even this one statistic cause a great deal of controversy, especially in times like now with rising cases of Covid-19.
For example, as reported by The Las Vegas Review-Journal last week, positivity rates for the Nevada now vary by an astounding five-fold range depending on the source of the statistics. It doesn’t help that the State went from 7-day to 14-day moving averages, thus dampening down an upsurge.
“We’re trying to get that trend to be as smooth as possible, so that an end user can look at it and really follow that line and understand what’s happening.”
State of Nevada Chief Biostatistician Kyra Morgan, Nevada changed how it measures COVID’s impact. Here’s why., The Las Vegas Review-Journal, 10/22/20
My preference is 7 days over 14 days, but, in any case, I would always like to see the raw data graphed along with the smoothed curves. The Georgia Rural Health Innovation Center provided an enlightening primer on moving averages this summer just as State Covid-19 cases spiked. Notice how the 7-day averaging takes out most of the noise in the data. The 14-day approach goes a bit too far in my opinion—blunting the spike at the end.
I advise that you pay attention to the nuances behind Covid-19 statistics, in particular the moving averages and how they get shifted from time to time.
PS My favorite method for smoothing is exponentially weighted moving averages. See it explained at this NIST Engineering Statistics Handbook post. It is quite easy to generate with a simple spreadsheet. With a smoothing constant of 0.2 (my preference) you get an averaging similar to a moving average of 5 periods, but it is far more responsive to more current results.
Assessing the threat from Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) via quantitative analytics
“In God we trust. All others must provide data.”
Dr. William Schaffner, a preventive medicine specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, quoted by NY Times on 2/2/20 in their report that “Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say”.
Stay calm and carry on is a good mantra for these unsettled times. But it pays to keep an eye on developments with a critical view on the facts so far as they can be ascertained. Here are some interesting statistics and data-driven observations on the impact thus far and in future of 2019-nCoV from the New York Times:
- Fatalities now come to 425 in mainland China as of Tuesday morning according to this latest news, eclipsing Chinese deaths from SARS (349). For a view of its spread throughout Asia, see the Coronavirus Map via the link above.
- For a very enlightening interactive-graphical view graphics see this in-depth report.
Keep in mind that much remains to be determined. For example, it may turn out that 2019-nCoV for better (less fatal) or worse (more infectious) may turn out to be more like 2009 H1N1 Swine flu than SARS.
You, like me, may be curious about the effectiveness of wearing a mask. From this NPR investigation, I surmise that N95 respirators, such as those made by 3M, work best, but only if fitted properly and worn with great discipline in not touching one’s face. In any case during this flu season, we all need to wash our hands with soap and water often (hand sanitizers don’t work nearly so well by my reckoning) and stay home if we get sick.
For what it’s worth, that’s my take for now. You all must make your own judgments. All I suggest is that you not let fear rule—assess the data and adjust your thinking as more accumulates. But best you be conservative on the safe side.
PS. Those of you who fly frequently are well-advised to check out this advice from yesterday’s Wall Street Journal. I am comforted by the statistic of 99.9% particulate removal and thus “the cabin air environment is not conducive to the spread of most infectious diseases” per the CDC. However, as always, it’s best to be careful during times when the flu and/or other viruses run rampant.
Achieve New Year’s resolution to reduce stress at your work-desk
With the page turned over to 2020, office-workers worldwide must bear down again and do even better than ever before. If you did really well in last year, that just raises expectations for a similar improvement over the next 12 months. Naturally stress levels rise and performance drops off into a downward spiral. But, no worries, a solution is at hand: Simply pick up a small plant, preferably fool-proof such as these fine fifteen recommended by House Beautiful. Then, per a study by Japanese scientists*, whenever you feel worn down, take a 3 minute break to gaze at your plant and, when needed, care for it. Based on the results from experiments on over 60 participants, you will become more relaxed (as measured by pulse rate) and relieved of anxiety (based on scoring).
“Nature can serve as an antidote to over-stimulation or “attention fatigue,” as well as boost cognitive performance.”
Cory Steig, Health and Wellness Reporter, Make It, CNBC, 3/3/20, “This 3-minute, $3 habit could lower your stress and anxiety at work”.
It works for me. In any case, happy New Year! Don’t let the stress get to you.
* Toyoda, et al, “Potential of a Small Indoor Plant on the Desk for Reducing Office Workers’ Stress”, 12/19/19, HortTechnology.
Testing the adage that if you drink beer before wine then you will feel fine
Just in time for the partying hearty for Christmas today, my son-in-law Ryan, a chemist with 3M, alerted me to a statistical study published after last year’s holiday season by the The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition that questioned the advice of grape or grain but never the twain. Naturally, being a drinker of these undistilled alcoholic beverages, I wondered if my tendency to drink beer before dinner and wine for the meal would pass the test. But being a wonk for design of experiments, I was most curious to see a randomized controlled multiarm matched-triplet crossover trial—pictured below for this experiment on the order of addition for beer and/or wine.
Based on results from 90 participants, including a control group, “neither type nor order of consumed alcoholic beverages significantly affected hangover intensity (P > 0.05)”. What really mattered was the total consumption, although, interestingly, hangover intensity did not correlate to breath alcohol concentration (BrAC). However, the authors warn that
“The fact that we did not find a direct correlation between maximal BrAC and hangover intensity should not be misinterpreted as an invitation to drink until the cows come home. Likely, this correlation overall does exist but is not directly apparent in the narrow range of peak alcohol levels studied here.”
It’s disclosed at the end that Carlsberg provided the beer (premium Pilsner lager recipe from 1847) free of charge “for the sole purpose of utilization in this study”. Although I trust the author’s disclaimer of any bias, perhaps further study is warranted with stronger beers such as a Belgian trippel. Maybe wine would then be best drunk first. To be continued…
Prize-winning research only scratches the surface
Just in time for the super-dry, winter season, when us Minnesotans become terribly itchy if we do not diligently apply moisturizer, the Annals of Improbable Research awarded their 2019 Ig Nobel Peace (ha ha) Prize to researchers who discovered that people enjoy scratching their ankles. While one might get pleasure initially from giving in to an itch elsewhere, the satisfaction soon fades. But ankles do not rankle when it comes to scratching.
For all the details from the team of authors, including the Director of the Miami Itch Center, Gil Yoispovitch (italics mine), click this NIH Public Access posting of The Pleasurability of Scratching an Itch: A Psychophysical and Topographical Assessment.
Money buys happiness unless you get caught up in the Easterlin paradox
Posted by mark in Uncategorized, Wellness on April 23, 2019
The March 23rd issue of The Economist provides an interesting graphic on GDP per person—a measure of wealth—versus self-reported happiness. Overall it shows an upward trend that increases life satisfaction by 0.7 points (on a 10-point scale) as GDP doubles.
China is a prime example of money buying more happiness. Sadly, us citizens of the USA (and many European countries) are subject to the Easterlin paradox, which puts a limit on how satisfied people get as their income rises, beyond which money cannot buy more happiness.
Check out this interactive online version of the happiness vs wealth posted by The Economist. There, if American, you will see with some satisfaction (misery liking company) that Netherlands and several other wealthy countries share our downward trend. However, Germany and Britain remain on the upswing. (I wonder with Britain now in the throes of Brexit if their GDP will shrink and, if so, suspect that their happiness will also fall off.)
So, bottom line, for those of us stuck in the paradox, would you rather be richer or happier? That is a tough question!
A blog about blob
“Americans are getting fatter…and shorter” said the headline in the Venice Florida Gondolier Sun last month. The fatter bit was easy to swallow (ha ha), but the second part of this news–the lessening heights–caught me short (yeah, another bad pun).
Here are the average body measures for 2016 gleaned by the Gondolier Sun (Bob Mudge) from this just-released survey by the Department of Health & Human Services (HHS):
- Men 5 feet 9 inches, 197.8 pounds, 40.3 inch waist
- Women 5 feet 3.6 inches, 170.5 pounds, 38.7 inch waist
Mudge reported that the average man is four-tenths of an inch shorter than in 2006. At this rate I figure that men will be reduced to the size of a mouse by the year 3716.
Meanwhile, the New York Times (Nicholas Bakalar) noted that men have gained 8 pounds since 2002. Doing my math on weights projected to 3716 I calculate a massive 1170 pounds for these future mouse-sized men. That is dense (as are my projections)!
My frivolous extrapolations notwithstanding, the realities of actual measurements by HHS are harsh. Is it too late for New Year’s resolutions? If not, I am working on increasing my height in 2019.
“People tend to overreport their height and underreport their weight.”
– Cynthia L Ogden, epidemiologist and senior author of HHS’s National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey
Dream come true: Homework banned and school days delayed
The Wall Street Journal this week reports that, for the sake of “student wellness”, school districts across the USA are now banning homework [1].
The U.S. Department of Education figures that, on average, high-school students (those without the “get of jail free” card) spend about 8 hours per week on extracurricular assignments. Girls spend an hour more than the norm and boys an hour less, thus there’s a two-hour gender gap on homework. (You be the judge as to what this implies on relative intelligence. I don’t dare!)
Naturally, parents with ambitions for their son or daughter do not favor this trend to relieve academic pressure. Many evidently move their child to private schools that load on several more hours of homework every week. That would be a blow—being yanked away from all your friends at Easy Street High.
It would be worth it if more homework leads to a significantly better education. WSJ suggests that this may not be so for elementary students. That seems sensible. But what about high school? The author of The Battle Over Homework, Duke professor Harris Cooper, says that studies show a positive correlation of homework with achievement [2]. He advises that high-schoolers put in at least 90 minutes a night but beyond 2.5 hours the returns diminish (and any chance of a social life).
Meantime, other school districts, perhaps some that ban homework (that would be double dope!), have moved back their start times to provide more sleep for students. For the heads up, see these Shots from the December 12th NPR Health News on Sleepless No More In Seattle.
I can only say that my quarter of 8 am organic chemistry as a freshman at university did not go well. My notes provided a record of frequent nodding off by my pen trailing off every few lines. That was before I discovered coffee and became addicted to rising early.
Are you seeing red sorting out how much sunscreen to apply and at what strength?
As pointed out in this weekend’s Wall Street Journal, this is the burning question for those of us in the northern hemisphere as we enjoy our brightest days of the year. According to The Numbers columnist Jo Craven McGinty, the answers are:
- At least 2 milligrams per square centimeter—about one-fifth the depth of a piece of paper. Although this seems very thin, most people only put on about half that amount, so you’d best apply your sunscreen twice.
- Go for at least an SPF of 50. However, do not sweat it if all you have on hand is SPF 30, or the level 50 costs more than you care to pay—the difference is minor as you can see in the graph I made by fitting the FDA data WSJ
provided to a curve (using Design-Expert® software).
It seems to me it would be best to stay out of the sun as much as possible, and, when you do, cover up, but seek the advice of your physician or other qualified health provider, such as a dermatologist. Be careful out there!
PS. McGinty detailed a study that found a significant advantage to increasing SPF from 50 to 100. It being done via a randomized split on 199 snow skiers bodes well. However, the research was sponsored by a sunscreen maker. An independent, contrary view of 100 SPF pros and cons is laid out here.
Ear, ear: 7-year-olds hear 70% from right versus only 55% of speech to left
Jo Craven McGinty, the Wall Street Journal “Numbers” columnist, provided in the February 3rd issue the surprising ‘heads-up’ that children understand much less of when spoken to from the left than from the right. The difference in comprehension stems from a discrepancy in lengths to which speech must travel through the brain. This had been thought to become moot as nerves develop—the “right-ear-advantage” (REA) becoming clinically insignificant by adulthood. However, as reported by WSJ, new findings presented by Auburn University researchers in December to the Acoustical Society of America, indicate that even at ages 19 to 28, a challenging communication may be understood at a rate of 40% more when delivered to the right ear.
The Remarkable History of Right-Ear Advantage published in the January 2018 Hearing Review reveals that REA returns with a vengeance at age 60 and beyond. Perhaps a podcast will be produced to speak on this phenomenon. If so, I plan to put the sound bud into my right ear.